Archive - Aug 11, 2014 - Story

With all eyes firmly focused on Ukraine's borders and the bloodshed in the East as fighting rages, it appears few are paying attention to the ongoing collapse of the nation's currency. The Hrynia just traded at new record lows this morning following NATO's Rasmussen's comments. However, there is no need to worry...

UKRAINE EXPECTS $1.95B FROM WORLD BANK, IMF THIS MONTH

Get to work, Mr. US Taxpayer...

Operation Desert Shield; Operation Desert Storm; Operation Provide Comfort I and II; Operation Southern Watch; Operation Desert Strike; Operation Northern Watch; Operation Desert Fox; Operation Southern Focus; Operation Iraqi Freedom; Operation New Dawn,

and...

Operation [Provide Humanitarian Aid]

For all those who invest by "thematic play", here is the full YTD breakdown.

Deja vu all over again. Just as he stole the jam from the market's donut last week, NATO Chief Rasmussen has done it again:

NATO'S RASMUSSEN SEES "HIGH PROBABILITY" THAT RUSSIA COULD INTERVENE MILITARILY IN EASTERN UKRAINE

He also adds he sees no sign of troop withdrawal. So, despite the market's confidence that it's fixed and Putin has folded, it seems NATO is not so sure. Un-De-Escalation begins.

Remember last Monday - the day after Banco Espirito Santo was bailed out and Europe was fixed... before the world's geopolitical chaos rotated to aa on the Spinal Tap amplifier of doom - well US equity futures have levitated on de minimus volume, with the help of AUDJPY, to last week's highs. And all that before Rasmussen threatened Russia, US unleashed airstrikes and Russia stopped its military drill. Treasuries are 0-1bps higher in yield. Silver and oil are rising notably.

Sorry Ukraine, but when Europe has to choose between you and Russian gas, the gas wins every time.

While Einstein defined insanity as repeating the same behavior and expecting different results, it appears President Obama's administration defines that action as US foreign policy. Just as they did in Syria (where the US 'trained' moderate Al Qaeda terrorists, instead of "sending troops" - ensuring no 'boots on the ground' blowback), AP reports that the US is sending arms to the Kurds as their new proxy mercenary force in Northern Iraq. We are sure the result will be different this time?

Tragically, the inability of our institutions to impart the skills required by the emerging economy hobble not just the unemployed but employers.

• Maliki digs in as U.S. pushes for new Iraq government (Reuters)
• Ukraine's forces say close to taking rebel-held Donetsk (Reuters)
• Anger Over Michael Brown Shooting Leads to Looting (WSJ)
• German Economy Backbone Bending From Lost Russia Sales (BBG)
• Kinder Morgan to Consolidate Empire (WSJ)
• Early Failure to Detect Gaza Tunnel Network Triggers Recriminations in Israel (WSJ)
• You’ll never guess how much BuzzFeed raised from Horowitz (FT)
• The dumb money is now chasing Chinese oligarchs: Norway’s Wealth Fund Buys $576 Million of Mayfair Area (BBG)
• Clinical trial to start soon on GSK Ebola vaccine (Reuters)
• No drone skeet shooting any time soon (WSJ)

Since there is nothing on today's data docket, it will be all about, you guessed it, geopolitical risks, where "consensus" is best summarized by these two Bloomberg headlines:

• Stay USD Long as Geopolitical Risks Loom
• USD is mixed and world stock markets rise as concerns over geopolitical risks ease

That pretty much covers it, although in addition to the Ukraine civil war one can now add an Iraq coup to the list of geopolitical fiascoes instigated by US foreign policy.

Just days after the US launched a campaign that implicitly aides the current regime headed by the supposedly outgoing PM, al-Maliki, it appears that latest US intervention has already led to "unexpected" consequences, this time with the prime minister appearing to have just staged a coup overthrowing Iraq's president President Fouad Massoum moments ago.