Archive - 2014 - Story

Oil volatility has literally exploded in recent weeks as investors pile into protection and headline-driven shocks spark almost unprecedented swings in the ultimate raw material. While FX volatility has been draually picking up in the last 6 weeks - now at 2014 highs, rates and equity market volatilities have shrugged this off... until last week. While rates volatility is stable, equity vol picked up significantly as 'business risk' picks up once again - as evidenced by the contagious weakness in high-yield credit markets.

The market is a giant living organism of human behavior and trying to predict what the market will do in two weeks, much less twelve months from now, is pure folly. However, by looking at the price trends, and using some statistical analysis, we can garner a view of the direction that the “herd” is most likely heading. There is a fascinating analogy in nature, called murmuration, that very much resembles the “herd mentality” in the markets.

It's jolly good fun to discuss alternatives to the doomed status quo, but what choice do most of us have to participating in the current system, even if we loathe it? The lack of choice is of course a key characteristic of the status quo-- if alternatives were plentiful, how many would opt out of Corporate America and the Financial Nobility's manor house of debt servitude?

Because nothing says the status quo is still in charge like crashing gold & silver and rebounding US equities. All driven by USDJPY's magical levitation starting at 12ET runs the stops over 118.00...

Because it's all about fundamentals...

Having almost touched $59 overnight, WTI crude has collapsed back to a $55 handle, smashing the Ruble lower and high-yield credit spreads higher. US financial stocks are starting to weaken back towards the credit market's warnings as counterparty risk concerns spread...

Slowing the rebalancing and creating further downside risk is a very strong consensus view that this pull back is temporary and that oil prices will quickly rebound as they did in 2009. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, the median WTI forecast for 2016 is $86/bbl (even we forecast it going back to $80/bbl). All of these forecasts are based upon now outdated cost data that is shifting as fast as the price. It is precisely this strong view for a rebound in prices and the behavior it creates, that not only suggests that oil prices can go lower for longer, but also that the new normal is far lower than we thought just one month ago. Instead of optimizing against a lower price environment, many oil producers are trying to position themselves for the rebound in prices

It appears, in the new post-Fed-QE world, that "good news" is indeed bad news. Remember that "great jobs data" from 2 weeks ago?

More bloodbathery. Wherever we look today, things are not going well. While we have become used to day after day of Oil Producers' FX collapsing, today we see the tumble in Emerging Market FX rates begin to accelerate in a very Taper-Tantrum-esque manner. While the Ruble at 64 is grabbing headlines, Turkish Lira is utterly collapsing along with Indonesia and India overnight.

BREAKING NEWS: HOSTAGE-TAKER KILLED BY GUNFIRE. SKY NEWS
POLICE STORMING SYDNEY SIEGE CAFE, ABC REPORTS
EXPLOSIONS, SHOOTING AT SYDNEY SIEGE SITE: ABC TELEVISION FOOTAGE
TWO PEOPLE KILLED AS POLICE END SIEGE OF SYDNEY CAFE, CNN SAYS
GUNMAN HAS NOT BEEN SEEN LEAVING SYDNEY SIEGE BUILDING: SKY
SYDNEY SIEGE IS OVER, AUSTRALIAN POLICE SAY VIA TWITTER

For anyone trying to trade today, this post is moot. For everyone else, when less than 1K ES contracts take out not 1, not 2, not 3 but 4 levels of order book depth, then one better pray that Waddell and Reed does not sneeze, and certainly not sell (or, gasp, short) anything in size or else...

Well that escalated quickly... again. While credit markets were not buying the dead-cat-bounce in stocks and oil this morning (Energy HY >1000bps, HYCDX >400bps), financial media was cock-a-hoop... "the bottom is in." Well we have a new bottom. WTI Crude futures have tumbled back to the scene of the manipulative algo crime last night back below $57. European stocks are under pressure and are now once again negative year-to-date and US stocks have given up all the overnight and US opening exuberance gains - now red from Friday.

For the first time on record, HY Energy OAS has broken above 1000bps - signifying dramatic systemic business risk in that sector (despite a modest rebound today in crude prices). The energy sector is entirely frozen out of the credit markets at this point with desk chatter that there is no bid for this distressed debt at all and air-pockets appear everywhere as each new trade reprices the entire sector. The broad high-yield 'yield' and 'spread' markets are now under significant pressure - both pushing to the cycle's worst levels.