Archive - 2014 - Story

While excess risk-taking and broken markets likely dominate their thinking, the 'real economic recovery' meme the Fed is using to enable them to 'taper' their excesses. However, investors remain assured that if things get worse once again then the Fed will crank the presses and save the assets. It seems they have found their new excuse - no matter what...

*LACKER EXPECTS 'A LOT OF TURMOIL' IN HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY
*LACKER SAYS FED WILL BE WATCHING HEALTHCARE CLOSELY IN NEXT FEW YEARS

So, despite admitting asset-bubbles, fears over stock-multiples and excessively easy lending; the Fed will launch QE5 when Obamacare drags the US economy into trouble...

With the FBI joining investigations into the New Jersey Governor's Bridge-Gate scandal (and David Wildstein 'pleading da fif'), it would appear Chris Christie is calling in some favors. Bloomberg TV's Stephanie Ruhle reports this moring that the billionaire money manager Stan Druckenmiller proclaimed, "Governor Christie's actions yesterday reinforces my admiration for him," as he (rightly) pointed out that "the country thirsts for a great leader. A leader's actions in crisis are revealing." Druckenmiller went on to explain in his statement that he "believes Chris Christie is a once-in-a-generation leader... and he is showing essential executive skills as a manager: ensuring accountability and taking responsibility."

Even Draghi proclaimed anyone calling the crisis over as 'premature' but that was ignored by the fast-money momo chasers looking for where to rotate their cash on the sidelines as US momentum fades. Greece, Portugal, and Spain stocks literally exploded higher this week:

Greece +7.7% - best week in 8 months
Portugal +4.7% - best week in 9 months
Spain +4.98% - best week in 16 months

Sounds right?! Efficient markets, indeed...

Once again, in its sheer panic to tout the quantity, or lack thereof, in the case of the December jobs number, the frenzied media and pundits completely ignored the quality of the jobs gained in the last month of December. Or lack thereof. Because as the simple breakdown below shows, of the 74K jobs gained in December, 55%, or 40K were the worst of the lot when it comes to wages or benefits: temporary jobs.

In a memo to employees today, Bank of America has made some 'improvements' to its recommendations for analysts and associates working hours...

*BOFA ANNOUNCES IMPROVEMENT IN WORKING CONDITIONS FOR JUNIORS
*BOFA SAYS JUNIOR BANKERS SHOULD TAKE 4 WEEKEND DAYS OFF A MONTH

There have been a litany of articles written recently discussing how the stock market is set for a continued bull rally.  These are some primary points that are common threads among each of these articles which are:  1) interest rates are low, 2) corporate profitability is high, and; 3) the Fed's monetary programs continue to put a floor under stocks.  The problem is that while we do not disagree with any of those points - they are all artificially influenced by outside factors.  Interest rates are low because of the Federal Reserve's actions, corporate profitability is high due to accounting rule changes following the financial crisis and the Fed's liquidity program artificially inflates stock prices. However, while the promise of a continued bull market is very enticing it is important to remember, as investors, that we have only one job:  "Buy Low/Sell High."  It is a simple rule that is more often than not forgotten as "greed" replaces "logic."

Whether one sees this as a worrisome indicator of social unrest to come; or confirming evidence that the safety net in America provided by an increasingly fearsome government is only going to get bigger... there can be little doubt that this index is a dismal reminder of the 'real' recovery in America today...

President Obama has just nominated Lael Brainard as a Fed Governor, Jerome Powell to his second term and most notably, Stanley Fischer (ex Head of the Bank of Israel) as Vice-Chairman of the Fed. "These three distinguished individuals have the proven experience, judgment and deep knowledge of the financial system to serve at the Federal Reserve during this important time for our economy,” Obama said in statement. Bear in mind that Fischer is skeptical of forward-guidance (as we note below) which is soon to become the Fed's main weapon to jawbone markets.

Stanley Fischer's term as governor runs through 2020 (vice chair through 2018), Brainard's term through 2026 and Powell's through 2028!

Tenure anyone? We are sure they will still do a great job...

The firm that advises its former employee Bill Dudley on how to run the New York Fed, speaks. Goldman's bottom line: bad jobs report, the weather was at fault (and apparently all those economists who had expectations of a 200K print were unaware it was cold out there until today) but the Fed will still taper by another $10 billion in January.

The gross manipulation of the unemployment rate due to the plunging labor force participation rate and the soaring, record number of people that are not in the labor force is by now, we hope, clear to all. Yes, millions may be dropping out of the labor force because they can't find a job which somehow means the US economy is getting better, but sadly the US civilian, non-institutional population keeps rising, and hit a record 246.7 million in December. Which is why every month we show what the real unemployment rate would look like when normalized for the fudged participation rate by taking a 30 year average. Today, we find that the difference between the reported (6.7%) unemployment rate, and the implied using realistic assumptions for the US labor force, which remained at 11.5% where it has been ever since the start of the Second Great Depression, just hit a record high 4.8%. As did the spin, lies and obfuscation by the administration that "all is well."

The Fed spent over $1 trillion in 2013 (to push the stock market to all time highs) and all we got was... less jobs created than in 2012?

While we have been told again and again that there are no asset bubbles - although th emost recent FOMC statement referenced concerns over small-cap mulitples and covenant-lite loan issuance - it seems the Fed's Jeff Lacker just let slip some ugly truthfulness...Answering questions after a speech proclaiming growth ahead and rising inflation, he said:

• *LACKER RELUCTANT FOR FED TO 'PRICK' ASSET-PRICE BUBBLES

Well there it is. There are asset bubbles? But Lacker - who has been anti-QE to some extent - knows that if the Fed moves to actually do anything about it (other than jawbone), it's all over. Perhaps as more realize the transition from a Bernanke Put to a Yellen Collar has occurred, there will be no need to jawbone any longer.

As was reported to mass jubilation on Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls number soared to the highest monthly change since November 2012, a 238,000 increase driven by what the report said was a 48,000 increase in construction jobs.  ADP's Mark Zandi went on the record to say that “The job market ended 2013 on a high note. Job gains are broad-based across industries, most notably in construction and manufacturing. It appears that businesses are growing more confident and increasing their hiring." It appears not. According to today's BLS report in December, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the construction industry lost 16K jobs. And where it gets really funny is when one looks at construction on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, construction jobs plummeted by a whopping 216,000! However you cut it someone is obviously lying. If we cared we would ask who. However, since both data series are completely fabricated, who even cares?

When this indicator of global trade rises, everything is rosy and reams of asset-gatherers and talking-heads wil quote it as indicative of how great the world is. When it drops - silence. There's always an excuse - over- or under-capacity, too many ships, too few ships, etc. However, the last 2 weeks have seen a 35% collapse in the cost to ship bulk. There is a relative seasonal pattern over the holiday period - with shipping costs rising into the holiday and falling after but... this is the biggest drop from a Christmas Eve since at least 1984, 30 years! Seems like the inventory stacking of Q4 had absolutely no follow-through whatsoever...