Archive - Oct 14, 2015 - Story

"I can tell you that as for China's warships, for example the Liaoning, whether it has gone to join, for this issue, as far as I know, there is no such plan. At this time the Liaoning is in a phase of carrying out technical training and military exercises."

A long way down...

The "engine of our economy", the "cradle of innovation", the "land of tomorrow" -- whatever breathless hyperbole the fawning media is using this week -- is a sham. Silicon Valley has become a factory of hype, funneling gobs of early-stage capital into whatever half-credible concepts it can think of, and then pimping the artificially-inflated initial results of those tarted-up ventures to whichever "greater fool" is willing to acquire it or buy its IPO. Let that idiot figure out if it will ever turn a profit...

From the lows in 2009, there was one sure thing in the market - buy stocks at 330pmET and sell at the close. For 3 years this massively outperformed every other period... until ZeroHedge exposed 330 RAMP CAPITAL in 2013. Since then it has been a losing bet with the 930-10amET "opening pump" replacing it as the "easy money." That was, until Black Monday...

For the first time in 5 months, API has reported a third weekly inventory build in crude oil in a row. API reported a stunning 9.3 milion barrel build (against expectations of a 1.8 mm build) with Cushing rising 1.4mm barrels! The result of the biggest inventory build since April, WTI is getting hammered...

For those who prudently had much better things to do last night than to watch the first Democrat presidential debate, and who inexplicably are still curious about what they missed - you are in luck: the Taiwanese animators have taken the time to summarize everything that the average American consumer, shown in this picture from the clip was meant to take home from this latest pandering to the lowest common denominator.

Following more than a year in which Netflix pulled an Amazon quite successfully, burning through tens then hundreds of millions in cash but promising ever loftier growth, moments ago the magic finally ended, when Reed Hastings' company reported Q3 revenue of of $1.581 billion, wildly missing not only consensus expectations of $1.75 billion, but its own Q2 forecast of $1.593 billion, while also missing the bottom line estimate of $0.08, generating just 7 cents in Earnings.

Do you see what happens Larry when Wal-mart succumbs to "progressive" pressure and hikes minimum wage? This:  WMT CFO: 2017 RISE IN WAGES TO COST $1.5B; WMT PLANS REDUCTION IN CAPITAL EXPENDITURES THROUGH FY19; WAL-MART SEES FY2017 EPS DECREASING 6-12% VS FY2016.  In other words, the company just slashed its 2017 earnings forecast by up to a whopping 12%: the reason - the recent increase in wages.  So did the American worker win for once? Alas, no...

Given the cyclical leadership dynamics since the 8/24 low in stocks, one would have guessed that bonds would have sold off in lockstep with stocks rising. One would have been wrong.

For anyone curious to know whether German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble had reconsidered his stance on the need for ultra accommodative policies now that the Volkswagen emissions scandal looks set to present a very serious threat to Germany's economy, the answer is "no."

Gold has broken above its 200-day moving-average and pushed back into positive territoiry for 2015 amid a notable surge in prices (after whipsawing around in the last 24 hours). As the USD Index suffers its first 'death cross' in over 2 years, perhaps Paul Singer's comments are starting to gather momentum.

Stephen Hawking has been outspoken in recent years about the catastrophic dangers humanity faces in the 21st century. He said we should be cautious in attempting to contact aliens, warning that advanced extraterrestrial life may not be friendly toward us and could destroy the human race. He also stated we should be cautious in creating strong artificial intelligence. But recently, Hawking addressed the threat he says may be more far more dangerous to the future of human civilization than robots, aliens, or quantum particles: capitalist greed.

As Rousseff fights to keep the Presidency, and has the speaker of the House battles to have her impeached, the country's economy continues to crumble. Retail sales came in below expectations for August and as Bloomberg reports, Brazil's top bankers now fear the combination of overindebted households and soaring unemployment could spell doom.

If we, and Bloomberg, are correct, and if the CFD unwind has only just started impacting the true supply/demand dynamics, and thus price, of copper, then we are only 30% of the way through the unwind of China's copper "carry trade" and thus the 'over-capacity' concerns are massively under-appreciated.