Archive - Oct 2015 - Story

Deutsche Bank is going through a painful restructuring that began with the ouster of co-CEOs Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen and culminated in new CEO John Cryan’s move to eliminate a quarter of the workforce, or some 23,000 people. Well don’t look now, but just moments ago, Europe’s biggest bank eliminated the dividend.

Anyone else found to have obtained at least "35 confidential documents" from the Fed on at least "20 occassions" would be sent straight to jail with a prison sentence anywhere between several decades and life.  Goldman's punishment? 0.6% of its 2014 Net Income.

It is possible that we might witness the formation of two blocks within OPEC during the next December 4 meet in Vienna. One, led by Venezuela, Ecuador, Libya and Algeria that would want to reduce production levels and the other led by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait that would stick to the current strategy of defending market shar. In the end, it will come down to survival of the fittest. Players who have higher breakeven costs will be the ones who will blink first and thereby reduce their production levels.

"Australia and the U.S. should not light a fire and add fuel to the flames"...

Moments ago something even more disturbing than the Fed statement took place when a blimp used by NORAD in its surveillance of the east coast has become untethered from its mooring in Maryland and it's now flying somewhere over Pennsylvania, according to NORAD spokesman Lt. Joe Mavrocki.

"Fed officials suggested they had become less concerned in recent weeks about turbulent financial markets and uncertain economic developments overseas ... open[ing] the door more explicitly than they have before to raising rates at a final 2015 meeting in December."

With a 4% probability, it is no surprise that The Fed did not raise rates. Since The FOMC "folded" in September blaming global turmoil, stocks, bonds, and precious metals have soared as China (and EM) chaos has calmed while domestic data has declined. This has led to 'lift-off' expectations extending to April 2016, and so the question today is - how will The Fed convince the world it 'will' raise rates when it really can't...

• *FED REMOVES LINE THAT GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS MAY RESTRAIN GROWTH
  
• *FED SAYS U.S. ECONOMY `HAS BEEN EXPANDING AT A MODERATE PACE'

A definite hawkish bias but so we are left data-dependent (fundamentals bad, stocks good), and less economically optimistic, but are supposed to believe that December (34%) is still a live meeting (because of some hockey-stick expectation in data) because The Fed needs to raise to show that it can.

Perhaps "The Japanification of Monetary Policy" would have been a more appropriate title... "well it didn't work for them, so we should all try more of it" appears to be the repost of policy-makers worldwide which, inevitably, will lead to the total collpase of their credibility (and th every 'faith' of the world's investors shattered).

Norway's $860 billion sovereign wealth fund (tasked with managing the country's vast oil wealth) just had its worst quarter in 4 years and its first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2009 after an array of EM bets went awry. Meanwhile, the government is set to start making withdraws from the fund as slumping crude prices have effectively reduced inflows to zero. 

There are few political hacks in Washington more deserving of everlasting ignominy than retiring speaker John Boehner. So here’s a vehement good riddance to the man who has single-handedly destroyed whatever pathetic semblance of fiscal responsibility that remained in Washington.

With just about one hour until the FOMC statement, and the market in a general state of panicked, if bullish, disarray which had seen a material selloff in the Treasury complex, nobody was expecting a strong sale of $35 billion in 5-Year paper which just concluded moments ago. However, nobody expected it to fare this poorly either.

Europe has unleashed yet another monetary panic, and nowhere is it more visible than in what happened today across the short end of Europe's government curve.  As the table below shows, more than half of European sovereign issuers just saw the yield on their 2 Year Notes trade not only below zero, but hit never before seen negative yields!

In order put an end to the "Greek outrage" that Yanis Varoufakis may be doing what Hillary and Bill Clinton have been so good at, namely engaging in a "self-enrichment drive" and profiting from speeches made after his political departure (which in the Clintons' case was merely a tacit way of purchasing influence and future favors, i.e., bribing), and laid out all his public speeches and the associated fees since August 2015.

In the latest, and perhaps most unexpected, twist in Europe's refugee crisis, at least seven hundred of the roughly 4,000 asylum-seekers who had initially been accomodated by the German state of Lower Saxony have "mysteriously disappeared" according to a survey in the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung (NOZ).