Archive - Oct 2015 - Story

"A disinflationary mindset is taking hold," warns UMich's Curtin explaining, "Consumers are demanding discounts to spend, and are disappointed... have lower aspirations to spend."

Looks right!!?

"No brainer"? Seems to us like there’s only one way for things to go right and lots of ways for things to go wrong.

“I hope Bill Ackman has done more research on Valeant than he did on Herbalife, Target, Borders and JC Penny,” said Alan Hoffman, executive vice president, global corporate affairs, Herbalife.

Despite all the promises, all the surveys, all the expectations that wage growth is coming (any minute now), September crushed the hopes (and changes) and dreams of Americans as, for the first time since July 2013, Compensation of Employees fell month-over-month. Recovery?

"If the United States continues with these kinds of dangerous, provocative acts, there could well be a seriously pressing situation between frontline forces from both sides on the sea and in the air, or even a minor incident that sparks war."

The mid-year bounce is over. Both Personal Income (+0.1% vs +0.2% exp) and Personal Spending (+0.1% vs +0.2% exp) missed expectations and slowed dramatically. This is the weakest spending growth since January and weakest income growth since March driving the savings rate to its highest since April.

Sun Edison's meltup yesterday on news that hedge fund manager David Tepper would be appearing on CNBC (and nothing else) has been entirely removed as Tepper exclaimed this morning, with regard rumors "there must be some really good ganja coming into the country." Well if that doesn't sum up the entire market, we don't know what does...

The bullish fund flows are back. This is how Bank of America summarizes the latest EPFR capital flow sentiment: "Loving Wall Street: $15bn equity inflows + $5bn HY/IG inflows + 6 straight weeks of commodity inflows = investors are "risk-on."

• World stocks on course for best month in four years (Reuters)
• Global Stocks Up Amid Stimulus Hopes (WSJ)
• BOJ Refrains From Adding Stimulus Even as Inflation, Growth Wane (BBG)
• U.S. Avoids Debt Default as Congress Passes Fiscal Plan (BBG)
• China naval chief says minor incident could spark war in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Exclusive Club: No High-Frequency Traders Allowed at Luminex (WSJ)

As Beijing fights to keep "Mr. Chen" and his "yellow loafers," tea, and Snickers bars from smuggling billions out of the country on behalf of Chinese citizens fearing an economic implosion and a double-digit deval, capital account convertibility may counterintuitively be one of the PBoC's most effective weapons as loosening capital controls will both calm the panicked masses and support the IMF SDR bit. Still, as Citi's David Lubin puts it, "China should expect to see gross capital outflows for the foreseeable future [and] it's not even clear that SDR inclusion will lead to a net capital inflow to China." 

Back in September we explained why, contrary to both conventional wisdom and the BOJ's endless protests to the contrary, neither the BOJ nor the ECB have any interest in boosting QE at this - or any other point - simply because with every incremental bond they buy, the time when the two central banks run out of monetizable debt comes closer. Since then the ECB has jawboned that it may boost QE (but it has not done so), and overnight as reported previously, the BOJ likewise did not expand QE despite many, including Goldman Sachs, expecting it would do just that.

Just 5 days after holding a call to "confirms appropriateness of accounting" vis-a-vis Philidor, Valeant has just confirmed all the negative press when moments ago it formally announced it was terminating its relationship with Philidor.  "The newest allegations about activities at Philidor raise additional questions about the company's business practices," said J. Michael Pearson, Valeant's chairman and chief executive officer. "We have lost confidence in Philidor's ability to continue to operate in a manner that is acceptable to Valeant and the patients and doctors we serve."

Having disappointed an expectant market by voting overwhelmingly (8-1) to leave monetary policy unchanged, the initial plunge in USDJPY and Japanese stocks has found a mysterious (and massive) JPY seller and Nikkei 225 buyer. USDJPY is now 100 pips and Nikkei 225 500 points above post-BOJ dip lows... because hawkish is the new bullish...