Archive - Oct 2015 - Story

• Endangering national security, leaking state secrets, subverting the government, and undermining national unity;
• Inciting ethnic hatred or ethnic discrimination, and undermining national unity;
• Spreading rumor, disturbing social orders, undermining social stability;
• Spreading obscenity, pornography, gambling, violence, murder, terrorism or instigating others to commit crimes;
• Insulting or slandering others, infringing upon the legal rights and interest of others;

"This morning from the Oval Office, President Obama spoke by telephone with Doctors Without Borders International President Dr. Joanne Liu, to apologize and express his condolences for the MSF staff and patients who were killed and injured when a US military airstrike mistakenly struck an MSF field hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan over the weekend," Earnest said in the White House briefing.

Just around the corner, indeed.

Brazil, which is caught in a vicious recessionary spiral which is only set to get much worse before it gets better, tried to obtain some much needed cash when earlier today it conducted an auction to sell exploration rights for of its oil and gas. It was, in short,  a disaster. According to Reuters, by midday Brazil had only sold 17 of 119 blocks offered. A total of 36 companies from 17 countries - including Petrobras, ExxonMobil Corp, BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc - registered for the auction. None of the majors have bid so far. Only a handful of sold blocks were even contested.

If yesterday's 3Year auction was solid across the board, then today's sale of $21 billion in 10Y was an all around show-stopper,

If anarcho-capitalists should move to Somalia, then socialists - especially, “social democrats” - should move to Venezuela. The country is a complete disaster. Economic chaos, food rationing and a complete break down of the social order aren’t lessons of a misguided dictatorship of the proletariat, but a fundamental reality of socialism, whether democratic or not.

The colonel "got away", and now his "partner" is out of jail...

There is little that is of greater importance to systemic confidence than faith in the abilities of central banks. Thus, when even the mainstream financial press begins to publish articles about a potential “loss of credibility” faced by these august institutions, one must begin to pay close attention.

Mortgage applications rose 25.5% week-over-week - the 2nd largest surge since 2009 - to the highest level (for this time of year) since 2012. Both refis and purchases soared, and exuberance immediatoley extrapolated this surge as 'proving' the housing recovery is healthy. However, as MBA admits, "many applications were filed prior to the TILA-RESPA regulatory change," strongly suggesting this is anything but sustainable.

A popular view among some market participants is that the Fed is unlikely to hike in a presidential election year. While many economic and market factors may influence when and how often the Fed hikes in the upcoming months, BofAML does not expect the timing of US elections to play any meaningful role in the Fed’s policy deliberations.

A huge build in crude inventories started the ball rolling but a sudden "spoofer from above" sent US equities slumping this morning. The Dow and S&P have now joined the Nasdaq in the red...

The takeaway is that to the extent the overnight relief rally in the ringgit and then subsequently in other Asia EM "assets" was catalyzed by a "better" than expected read on the situation in China, the market may be making a mistake because just like Chinese GDP prints, the headline figure on the PBoC's store of FX reserves should be taken with a grain (or perhaps a whole shaker) of salt when it comes to drawing conclusions about the pace of outflows from the world's second most important economy.