Archive - Nov 3, 2015 - Story

Ahead of US spec ops deployment in Syria, the US is sending F-15C Eagle twin-engine fighters to Turkey, suggesting The Pentagon is preparing for aerial combat with the Russian air force. 

These are not problems that can be glibly dismissed with a few well-chosen words, as most politicians are inclined to do. Nor will the 2016 elections do much to alter our present course towards a police state. Indeed, it is doubtful whether the popularity contest for the new occupant of the White House will significantly alter the day-to-day life of the average American greatly at all. Those life-changing decisions are made elsewhere, by nameless, unelected government officials who have turned bureaucracy into a full-time and profitable business.

Following farcical elections which saw President Tayyip Erdogan get the outcome he needed in order to press forward with a move to rewrite the constitution on the way to consolidating his power, Ankara's crackdown on the press continues as the government is now jailing opposition reporters and accusing them of attempting to orchestrate a "coup."

After Q3's magic; Q4, we have a problem...

An article published in the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), documents that, ever since 1998 in the U.S, Whites who are of non-Hispanic origin have been dying younger and younger, and that this is especially true for those Whites who are low-educated (non-BA’ed) and middle-aged (45- to 54-year-old). But it’s true also for the other age-categories of non-Hispanic Whites.

Following Caixin China Manufacturing's 'surprise' jump higher (in the face of the official PMI flat), Caixin Services PMI just beat expectations and bounced considerably to a 'healthy expanding' 52.0 (despite official Services PMI plunge), bringing the Composite PMI to 49.9 - thus proving that billions of dollars of liquidity injections, market interventions, debt transfers to SOEs, arrests, shootings, and general thuggery has fixed China. For now stocks are rallying on this news but offshore Yuan is continuing to leak back to Friday's lows. The biggest gainers are the Chinese brokerages and exchanges (HKEx is up 8%) after PBOC Governor Zhou said a trading link with Shenzhen will start this year.

"The "bailout culture" often coincides with sustained weak growth because, among other consequences, successful companies have to compete with companies who are alive only because of cheap credit. Overcapacity and inefficient production are engendered by such policies, causing price and profit declines. Failure is an essential element of capitalism, and if failure is politically denied, the most effective, efficient and innovative solutions cannot "win" over the "living dead" who clutter markets and consumer baskets."

"In my opinion Janet Yellen is highly political and she's not raising rates for a very specific reason: because Obama told her not to because he wants to be out playing golf in a year from now and he wants to be doing other things and he doesn't want to see a big bubble burst during his administration."

The stock market has been soaring, but all of the hard economic numbers are telling us that a major global recession is here.  This is so reminiscent of what happened back in 2008.  Back then, all of the fundamentals were screaming “recession” by the middle of that year, but the equity markets didn’t respond until later.  It appears that a similar pattern is playing out right now. Just like in 2008, the irrational optimists are going to keep chanting their happy mantras for as long as they possibly can.

"Tent outside - full use of apartment - cheap - $90"

"I have a caravan in my driveway that I'm going to rent out."

... for many equities are simply, as SocGen puts it, "too scary."

"The options market seems to either be anticipating an inflection higher in the economic data, no rate hike, or an extreme lack of catalysts between now and year-end," according to Goldman Sachs' Krag Gregory. With VIX trading with a 13 handle, Gregroy warns, it is notably under-priced relative a 19 handle more in line with economic and policy uncertainty. The potential for volatility to swing higher seems more likely. Bottom line: a VIX back at 2013-2014 levels seems low if a December rate hike really is in play.

"Yesterday we held five funerals, but there are still 55 bodies at the morgue," exclaims Lesbos' mayor Spyros Galinos, adding "Who could have anticipated such a carnage in the Aegean?"