Archive - Nov 6, 2015 - Story

"Before September we'd only ever seen negative 10y swap spreads for a period in 2010 although they did turn negative intra-day 3-years ago. It’s not quite up there with the flash rally/crash in Treasuries 13 months ago but it’s a very strange occurrence and one to watch and likely another product of regulation and liquidity."

As DB so well-puts it, "Welcome to random number generator day also known as US payrolls." Consensus expects 185k jobs to have been added in October but it’s fair to say that the whisper number has edged up this week with slightly firmer US data. It is also fair to say that even if one knew the number beforehand, it would be impossible to know how the market will react.

Because nothing says 'stability' like a 10% surge in the 'price' of stocks in 3 days. Having trodden water between in a narrow range for a month, the last 3 days (ahead of US payrolls and China's weekend) are the biggest rally since China first banned short-selling in July, and 2nd biggest since December 2014 when the epic bubble really took off in Chinese stocks. Now, with China 'fixed', all The Fed needs is a "not terrible" payrolls print tomorrow and December is a done deal...