Archive - Nov 2015 - Story

The decline in broad true money supply growth below the lower end of its 2 year long range is a major crack in the echo bubble edifice. Very likely it is the most important one yet.

Although details are still sparse, Roubaix is very close to the border with Belgium which certainly leads one to wonder if there's a connection with the ongoing search for two unidentified terror suspects as well as the eighth Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam:

In July it was 5, then in October the number rose to 8, and moments ago we learned that during the meetings on October 15 and 22, a total of nine regional Feds had asked to increase the Fed's discount rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, with Boston joining the St. Louis, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, Cleveland, Dallas, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Richmond Fed. Two banks, the Chicago and NY Fed wanted to keep rates at 0.75%, while the domain of Fed's uber dove Kocherlakota, the Minneapolis Fed where former Goldmanite Neel Kashkari will soon operate, asked for a Discount Rate cut to 0.50%.

When it comes to 2016, Goldman says that it is "deja vu all over again", and that the S&P 500 index will tread water for a second consecutive year. Specifically Goldman says that its "year-end 2016 target of 2100 represents a 1% price gain from the current index level (2089), which itself is just 1% above the year-end 2014 level of 2059." Here are the reasons why Goldman expects all the main themes from 2015 to be repeated in the coming year, and why the one can just sell on December 31, 2015 and go away for the next year:

Nothing matters...

In a move that ends a weeks-long political stalemate, Portugal's President Anibal Cavaco Silva has named Socialist leader Antonio Costa PM. Due to Costa's alliance with the Left Bloc and the Communists, many worry the stage is now set for a showdown with Brussels, the IMF, and Berlin.

While yesterday's 2 Year auction was well stronger than expected, moments ago the Treasury sold $35 billion in 5 Years in an auction that came quite mixed: the High Yield printed at 1.67%, or the highest since June, it tailed 0.5 bps to the 1.665% When Issued. Perhaps showing the flattening of the curve on the short end, while yesterday's 2Y closed at the highest yield since May 2010, today's 5Y was only the highest since June, when a comparable auction yielded 1.71%.

Following the meeting of the North Atlantic Council requested by Turkey - to explain its actions - NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg gave a statement to the press, urging, just as Obama and Hollande just did, no escalation between the two nations and backing Turkey's version of events - that Russia did indeed violate Turkish airspace.

It was 11 months ago when brazen thieves penetrated deep within the "safe" confines of Manhattan, and tried to rob a Chase Manhattan branch on 72nd and Columbus in the Upper West Side. It was unclear if the robbers were successful then, or if the bank even had any cash. Moments ago, another bunch of just as brazen robbers has attempted to rob another Chase branch, this time on 6th Avenue and 18th street. According to the NY Scanner, the NYPD just called in a Level 1 mobilization to 611 6th Avenue, where thieves have struck yet again.

Five months (nearly to the day) after a gunman stormed the popular resort of Port El Kantaoui, north of Sousse in Tunisia killing 38 people including 30 British citizens with a Kalashnikov, multiple sources are reporting that an explosion in the capital has hit a bus carrying presidential guards.

Despite Ackman's triple-down, Valeant has given up all the after-hours' gains and is rapidly losing last week's "buying spree" dead-cat-bounce rally as Pershing's newly synthetic position in the troubled stock moves deeper in the red...

It appears the "hostile act" in Turkey was not enough to keep the dip-buyers from bidding The Dow back into the green for the day. Nasdaq and the S&P are still lagging... as is the credit market.

With 11 days passed since the horrific actions in Paris, French President Francois Hollande arrived at the White House to discuss the conflict with President Barack Obama, likely asking for greater cooperation (with Russia - who Hollande will meet Thursday) in the battle against ISIS. Obama and Hollande made no statements as they began their meeting in the Oval Office but we can only imagine Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet over its border with Syria produced fresh complications for the international campaign against Islamic State.

Some have suggested Vladmir Putin's first retaliation for the Turkish shooting down of a Russian fighter jet would be to cut off gas supplies (which represent 57% of Turkey's supply). With Russia Defense Minister stating that the "downing of the Russian warplane is a 'hostile act'," adding that the defense ministry is "devising a set of measures to respond to the incident," it seems taking the 'nuclear option' of cutting off 20% of Erdogan's entire energy supply would be a strong first non-lethal non-World-War-3-starting step.