Archive - Nov 2015 - Story

Americans have taken on more revolving debt (credit cards basically) since March than they did the previous three years combined. Economists are, as you would expect, nearly ecstatic over the impoverishment. To them, it signals the final capitulation of consumers to that which Janet Yellen has been professing since her term began. But there is a huge problem with that view; if consumers are borrowing, what are they doing with the balances? Instead, this discontinuity can only be consistent where consumers are completely out of options. If there are noticeably fewer goods being shipped here and within here, the US, and borrowing has just exploded at the same exact time then it is rather easy to conclude far more of full recession than recovery.

Success... or?

Swap spreads recently took a nosedive and are once again trading at negative levels, even for shorter maturities. This market perversion suggest that Wall Street is a safer counterpart than the very institution that underwrites the whole fractional reserve fraud in the first place. To price in a higher risk premium on the US government than on US banks is a contradiction in terms so there need to be another explanation behind this puzzling market phenomenon... There is, and you're not going to like it.

Dear Mr. President, your country faces a stagnating economy... The truth is it is too late for our politicians to act, because the speculative peak that precedes the crisis is already upon us.

The global economic order is shifting beneath the feet of Washington and Tokyo as Xi marches ahead with "One Belt, One Road" and prepares to extend the first loans from the China-led development bank that embarrassed the Obama administration earlier this year. 

At this week’s close, the FANG stocks were valued at just under $1.2 trillion, meaning they have gained $450 billion of market cap or 60% during the last 11 months - even as their combined earnings for the September LTM period were up by only 13%. In a word, the gamblers are piling on to the last train out of the station. And that means look out below!

"From July through October, hedge fund favorite stocks posted their worst relative returns outside of 2008."

According to The Times, EU leaders are holding "secret" meetings to discuss the future of Europe's cherished Schengen Agreement which allows for passport-free travel within the bloc. As one unnamed diplomat put it, "the current system is simply not working."

"Avoid places with high concentrations of people in the Brussels region (concerts, major events, train stations and airports, public transport, places of high commercial concentration). Facilitate follow the safety controls Do not post rumors: follow the official information from the authorities and police services In order to enable judicial inquiries to track their progress, no further details will be given."

Sometimes you just have to stand in awe at the level of corruption and incompetence in government.

Given how awesome everything appears to be, judging by stocks and the tidal wave of FedSpeak of the last week confirming that rates are rising in December, we found it at least marginally 'odd' that out of the blue,  The Fed would announce an 'expedited, closed' meeting on Monday...

“George W. Bush may think that a war against Iraq is the solution to our problems, but the reality is, it will only serve to create far more,” read a 2003 article on The Onion a week after then-President George Bush launched the Iraq War. While a wide variety of organizations and individuals also rebuked that invasion, the satirical newspaper offered one of the most accurate assessments to date. So accurate, in fact, it all but predicted the rise of the Islamic State.

Many campus activists have lashed out in frustration at “free speech purism,” which they regard as misplaced in the context of institutionalized oppression. But it is extremely short-sighted to sacrifice universal principle on the altar of identity politics for the sake of marginalized groups.

As the poor get poorer, so the saying goes, the rich get richer; and until recently that was not just true, but apparently mandated so by The Fed. However, the last few months have seen the so-called "1%" appearing to struggle a little in their largesse. As we noted previously, not only are luxury jet values dropping for the first time since 2009, London mansion prices plunging, San Francisco home sales collapsing, fine-wine and diamond prices at 2009 crisis lows, and Sotheby's laying people off, but now, as Bloomberg reports, Swiss watches - the ultimate in luxury extravagance - have seen exports crash by the most since the financial crisis.