Archive - Nov 2015 - Story

Oil was already weak this morning but the release of Genscape estimates of yet another siazable inventory build (1.8 million barrels) appears to have kicked the down-leg a notch lower. The overnight flash-crash lows are now in sight at WTI Crude trades with a $43 handle once again (and Dow Transports converge lower).

But rate-hikes are bullish, right?

We're gonna need a bigger buyback... As if "old tech" IBM was not in enough trouble, the worrying admission from Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's earnings of around $2 billion (though careful to note he is not about to sell) has seemingly prompted further weakness. IBM is down almost 2% to fresh May 2010 lows...

The carnage in Treasuries continues as this morning's chatter from 'sources' about moar NIRP in Europe has seemingly sparked a sudden exodus from US bonds (even with stocks lower). Across the curve yields are up 4-5bps very suddenly - all testing (if not already broken) 2015 highs. Perhaps most critically for now is the 5Y yield which is surging towards 1.80% - a crucial level of resistance over the past few years.

Based on last week’s developments, which included the launch of an investigation into the world’s largest oil company and the rejection of the most politicized energy project to date, the “above ground” problems for the energy industry are growing much worse. That could complicate the future fortunes of oil and gas companies.

• Fed speakers are likely to take focus in the US this week as market participants attempt to forecast the likelihood of a December FOMC rate lift off
• Eurozone GDP release is the most notable Eurozone data of the week, with a possible downbeat reading increasing the possibility of further easing by the ECB

Commodity pices are crumbling this morning as more jawboning of a "big cut" from The ECB has sparked further EUR weakness and thus USD strength (EURUSD 1.0740).  WTI's morning bounce (after flash-crashing at the Asia open) has been erased and new lows are looming. Silver is back at a $14 handle and Gold is holding below $1100.

Compare and contrast:

- In the US, after 7 years of ZIRP and QE, the expected December rate hike is supposed to push up inflation and confirm the economy is improving; it is naturally bullish for stocks.
- In Europe, a year and a half of NIRP and a year of QE, a December rate cut further into negative territory is supposed to push up inflation and confirm the economy is improving; it is naturally bullish for stocks.

While shootings in Manhattan used to be a relative rarity in the past couple of years, they have become increasingly more common. Case in point, earlier this morning when shortly before 6:15 am, a 43-year-old man was shot and killed and two others were wounded in a shooting inside a subway station at Eighth Avenue and 35th Street in Manhattan, by Pennsylvania Station.

Not all is well on Wall Street, where when one cuts all the noise, just one thing matters: the year-end bonus. It is here that as WSJ reports citing the latest survey from Johnson Associates, bonuses are expected to see a broad drop for the first time in four years.

The Socialists are coming! Just about the last thing Europe needs amid the bloc's worsening migrant crisis is a rerun of the Greek bailout negotiations, but that looks increasingly likely now that a coalition of leftists is moving to take control of the government in Portugal. 

• Global Stocks Slip Lower (WSJ)
• Dollar sits pretty, bond yields rise as Fed bets firm (Reuters)
• Takeover Loans Have Few Takers on Wall Street (WSJ)
• Chinese Buyers Seek Dollar Assets as Promise of Yuan Gains Fades (BBG)
• Banking Giants Learn Cost of Preventing Another Lehman Moment (BBG)
• Eurozone Finance Ministers Won’t Release $2.15 billion Loan to Greece (WSJ)

Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.

While the entire internet was throttled under the weight of millions of snapshots and short underexposed clips of the missile flight being uploaded to YouTube, Facebook and Twitter, one person captured the whole event in its dramatic entirety on time-lapse photography.

There was a time when there were needs, and there were wants, and we knew the difference. Now? Now, no such boundaries exist. Your 4,000 Facebook friends should know if you can’t pay for your rent - or your plastic surgery. And who knows? They may just pay up.