Archive - Nov 2015 - Story

If you thought the increases in insurance premiums incurred to date, you ain't seen nothing yet. According to a new study by McKinsey looking at the perverse consequences of Obamacare, "insurers struggled to predict their costs, and many didn’t set rates high enough to cover the care of those they enrolled." And now, they are going to do just that...

It is becoming increasingly clear that, come hell, high water, or dismal data, The Federal Reserve will raise rates in December whether the market likes it (which it will guarantee) or the economy doesn't (which doesn't matter after all). Fischer brushed off weak inflation (at Jackson Hole), Yellen dismissed global turmoil cocnerns (in the last FOMC statement), and now, with the final nail in the coffin of data-dependent lies, The San Fran Fed just dismissed 'wage growth' as entirely irrelevent for forecasting future growth or inflation; thus enabling The Fed to justify a December rate-hike no matter how bad the data they are so dependent on turns out to be.

In an ironic twist, just hours after we discussed the record capital outflow from Canada, resulting from the plunge in oil prices and the mothballing of Canada's energy industry, Obama's long-desired goal of killing the Keystone XL pipline has finally come true.

There are very real threats to the business models of oil companies, threats that need to be explained to investors, according to a new report by Carbon Tracker. Right now, those threats are not being taken seriously.

"We’re going to come down to about twice a quarter or a little more than that. That’s the right amount to make it regular but not a constant poke in the eye."

The Fed is weighing the negative consequences of a strong dollar on corporate profits vs. unleashing inflation on the electorate, pressuring long term interest rates. We will soon see which negative scenario they favor and why.

There are a multitude of fuses affixed to dozens of powderkegs and little kids with matches are on the loose.

President Obama has just unleashed a new executive order to remove admission of a criminal history from job applications, or in The White House's words, to reduce potential discrimination against former convicts in the hiring process for federal government employees. As NBC News reports, this is a further step towards what many criminal justice reformers call "ban the box" – the effort to eliminate requirements that job applicants check a box on their applications if they have a criminal record - and continues Obama’s emphasis on assisting criminals who want to re-enter society as part of his continuing agenda items from his "My Brother’s Keeper Task Force."

Another month-start massive short-squeeze...

"It is great. You took the words right out of my mouth. There are a lot of things that I am not allowed to write. Therefore I’m even more pleased with courageous, independent people."

Financial engineering scams like Tyco and Valeant would never happen in an honest free market. Short sellers would shut them down long before they reach egregious levels of over-valuation; and the cost of honest downside market insurance (i.e. S&P 500 puts) and market driven carry cost would dramatically reduce the profitability of speculation and the amount of punters and capital in the casino. In today’s broken markets and corrupt regime of central bank driven crony capitalism, however, bubbles inflate in individual securities, as well as in broad sectors and the market as a whole, until they reach egregious, self-correcting extremes. Then they violently implode, creating immense waves of collateral damage in the process. Perhaps then the American people will learn that Yellen & Co have actually been in the un-wealth effects business for way too long.

While there are certainly reasons to be "hopeful" that stocks will continue to rise into the future, "hope" has rarely been a fruitful investment strategy longer term. Therefore, let's analyze each of the optimist's arguments from both perspectives to eliminate "confirmation bias." 

Sometimes societies just go batshit crazy.

Presented with no comment.