Archive - Dec 31, 2015 - Story

The Muslim population of Britain surpassed 3.5 million in 2015 to become around 5.5% of the overall population of 64 million. In real terms, Britain has the third-largest Muslim population in the European Union, after France, then Germany. Islam and Islam-related issues were omnipresent in Britain during 2015, and can be categorized into five broad themes: 1) Islamic extremism and the security implications of British jihadists in Syria and Iraq; 2) the continuing spread of Islamic Sharia law in Britain; 3) the sexual exploitation of British children by Muslim gangs; 4) Muslim integration into British society; and 5) the failures of British multiculturalism.

Between Draghi's disappointment, Kuroda's un-dovishness, China's currency war, and flailing faith in The Fed (as policy errors loom), it appears European stocks were not the "no brainer" investment everyone promised them to be after all. December's 5% plunge was the worst for this time of year since 2002 (2nd worst on record).

This was not supposed to happen...

The Fed’s crystal ball is in serious need of a recalibration. Fed governors simply haven’t a flippin’ clue what to really expect from the economy. The gold market knows that. It knows that the U.S. economy is like an obese American who has taken up jogging to get into shape... only after the first lap around the track, it’s bent at the knees, huffing and puffing, and feeling like it’s gonna keel over.

As tensions continue to rise in both the South China Sea (see the recent protest by dozens of Filipinos in the Spratlys) and the East China Sea (where Beijing and Tokyo are feuding over disputed islands and claims on oil and gas fields), the PLA has begun building China's second aircraft carrier in yet another sign that Xi fully intends to build a true blue water navy.

America has never - ever - avoided a recession when Chicago's Business Barometer has collapsed to these levels. At 42.9, missing the expectations of 50.0 by the most ever, down from 48.7 in November, the final US economic data point of the year sums up perfectly what a disaster Yellen has hiked rates into.

The S&P 500 closed 2014 at 2058.90 and is currently trading below that level as the market opens. For the sake of faith in The Fed's "control" and trust in central planners ability to do "whatever it takes," it appears NYFed better "get back to work" soon to save the world.

Despite such endless financial engineering, sales for the S&P 500 have been declining for the last three quarters. And profits have declined for the first time since the 2009 expansion. Simply put: The recovery is a mirage... It isn’t real... And it isn’t sustainable.

Year-over-year, initial jobless claims are unchanged as the week-ending with Christmas Day saw a Scorrge-like 20,000 surge in initial claims. This is the largest weekly rise since February with 2015 ending with the highest initial claims print in 5 months.

Yesterday, in keeping with what has become a daily tradition, we asked a simple question: "Which hedge fund will close today." It turns out that despite our intention, the question was not rhetorical because just a few hours later Bloomberg answered, when it reported that the latest hedge fund casualty was another iconic, long-term investor: Scott Bommer's SAB Capital, which as of a year ago managed $1.1 billion, and which is now returning all outside money.

It appears the machines will have their work cut out today to keep the 'green for 2015' dream alive today as the last 30 minutes have seen selling accelerate across stock and commodity markets with bonds and the dollar bid.

On the heels of a “close call” in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, Washington is preparing new sanctions against a handful of companies and individuals tied to Tehran’s ballistic-missile program. "We've been looking for some time‎ at options for additional actions related to Iran's ballistic missile program based on our continued concerns about its activities,” an unnamed US official says. Iran calls the new actions "illegal."

• Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful (Reuters)
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (Guardian)
• Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse (BBG)
• From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen (WSJ)
• Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back (WSJ)
• China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans (BBG)

It has come down to this: a year in which the US stock market (led by a handful of shares even as the vast majority of stocks has dropped) has gone nowhere, but took the longest and most volatile path to get there, is about to close either red or green for 2015 based on what happens in today's low-volume session following yesterday's unexpected last half hour of trading "air pocket" which brought the S&P back to unchanged for the year.