Archive - Dec 4, 2015 - Story

So how do you grow household wealth by $18 trillion in the face of these dismal real world trends? In a word, with a printing press. But what happened today is that Draghi showed he is out of tricks and Yellen confessed she is out of excuses. Yes, this sucker is going down. And this time all the misguided economics professors turned central bankers in the world will be powerless to reverse the plunge.

There is a high hurdle following October's surprisingly strong gain of 271,000 jobs. On the other hand, Wall Street is confident we would have to see a significantly lower number, somewhere in the 100,000 range or even lower, — and weakness in other parts of the report, such as the unemployment rate, hourly wages and weekly hours — for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike into next year.

In a 445 “for”, 146 “against” (seven abstentions) vote, German lawmakers approved the use of six Tornado reconnaissance jets, and the deployment of a frigate to help "protect" the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off the coast of Syria. Berlin will also send refueling aircraft and up to 1,200 military personnel.

• The Jobs Report Probably Won't Change the Fed's Mind on Liftoff (BBG)
• U.S. authorities look for militant links to shooters in California mass slaying (Reuters)
• Neighbors, Acquaintances Shocked That Couple Are San Bernardino Shooting Suspects (WSJ)
• ECB Fumbles the Stimulus-Baton Hand-off, Mussing Up Fed’s Plans (WSJ)
• OPEC Heads for Status Quo as Members Clash Over Crude Output Cut (BBG)
• Foreigners drawn in as fear and loathing grip China's finance industry (Reuters)

"There has been a bunch of headlines coming out of OPEC with each contradicting the other," says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob. “It is difficult to trade in front of OPEC - the general consensus is for nothing, but when we get a soundbite that creates a bit of a reaction." However, once the OPEC meeting announces that, sorry Venezuela but nothing changes, expect the early upward bias to crude prices to promptly reverse.

Optimism in US equity futures appears to have returned, and as of this moment US equity futures are higher by 9 points to 2060 as the attention shifts to what, according to BofA, is truly the most important ever. It is unclear just how the algos would take a second consecutive major disappointment in a row: should today's NFP print be well below the 200,000 consensus, December rate hike odd will tumble and the EUR will surge even more after declining modestly from overnight highs just below 1.10, leading to even more losses in European equities and spilling over to the US.