Archive - Dec 8, 2015 - Story

There was a time, not so long ago, when "terrorism" was great news for the oil complex (and thus energy stocks). Since The Fed enabled the unleashing of expensive American shale oil, that appears not to be the case anymore... (until the radical ideologs start attacking Oklahoma and Texas?)

In the end, we are just human. Despite the best of our intentions, it is nearly impossible for an individual to be devoid of the emotional biases that inevitably lead to poor investment decision making over time. This is why all great investors have strict investment disciplines that they follow to reduce the impact of human emotions. Take a step back from the media and Wall Street commentary for a moment and make an honest assessment of the financial markets today. Does the current extension of the financial markets appear to be rational? Are individuals current assessing the "possibilities" or the "probabilities" in the markets?

Dow Transports are in reverse. Down over 3% today, the biggest drop since the Black Monday collapse, Trannies are now below the lows of the Bullard bounce from October 2014 and down a shocking 16% in 2015. This would be the first four-quarters-in-a-row drop in Transports since 1994 and the worst year since 2008...

Considering the plethora of specials on the curve, which included both the 2Y, 3Y and the 10Y, it is hardly surprising that many took opportunity to cover the structural short headed into today's auction by purchasing paper in the primary market.

Man Group, which runs $76.8 billion in assets, said on its website that its $4.4 billion AHL Diversified fund lost 5.1% on Thursday. Among other funds to have been running bets, to a greater or lesser extent, against the euro were Brevan Howard Asset Management, which oversees about $25 billion in assets; Tudor Investment Corp.; Moore Capital Management; and Caxton Associates, said investors. "Pretty much everyone was short the euro. The view was very clear for everyone."

Of the many economic policies that are accepted as true yet are absolute nonsense, perhaps none is more achingly nonsensical than the notion that weakening a nation's currency will magically make that nation prosperous. No empire has ever prospered by weakening its currency. Reducing the purchasing power of one's money is the road to ruin, not prosperity.

While it will hardly come as a surprise to its employees (who were warned a week ago that 25% of all fixed income workers would lose their jobs in the immediate future) most had hoped that the bailed out bank would at least have the ethics to wait with the layoffs until after the new year, now just three weeks away. It did not.

From Ecoli to Norovirus and from average-joes to college athletes, the success of CMG has become its down fall as something ugly is growing in the healthy fast food restaurant. The latest headline is a little intriguing, as amid all the carnage, Chitptle says it will have to raise prices... as new supplier standards will hurt margins, and require "significant cost" adjustment, according to CFO Jack Hartung. We will see if poeple wil pay more not to get siuck and lose 15lbs (or prefer to pay less).

"Training at this camp began with the knowledge of the Iraqi Defence Ministry and police. Those who make different interpretations of the Turkish military presence in Mosul are involved in deliberate provocation."

"ISIS is an enemy of my country. ISIS is a disgrace. It puts my religion in a bad light. They don't represent Islam and I do not consider them to be Muslims.”

Canadian stocks are down 15% from their highs in 2008 (and down 18% from the 2014 highs) as the blowback from a collapsing energy market ripples across the entire "not unequivocally good" economy. However, perhaps more worrying is the 2008-esque dynamic playing out almost perfectly for America's northern neighbor...

Gold sentiment may finally be getting bearish enough to support a durable bottom.

Who could have seen that coming?

Last week we asked (rhetorically) if "something just blew up in junk?" We have the answer today, as triple-hooks (CCC-rated debt) in the junk bond market have crashed through the worst levels of 2011 and are now at the highest yields since July 2009. Amid this complacency still reigns in the equity market (just as it did when the last credit cycle turned).