Archive - Dec 2015 - Story

After a year of proclamations from mainstream media (and Wall St. economists) that low oil prices mean low gas prices at the pump which means "bonanza" for US consumers, it appears none of that happened. Confidence is fading fast despite what some suggest is $550 average savings this year as 'gains' flooded into soaring rent and healthcare costs. But, more recently, as stock markets celebrate a soaring oil price (off decade lows), wholesale gasoline prices have soared 10% in a little over 48 hours...

Having recently opined that "2015 was one of the most difficult markets in 50 years," the venerable Art Cashin has once again unleashed annual holiday poem.

There has been a "continued shunning of fixed income" with over $25 Bn of outflows from bond funds in three weeks, of which $6.4 Bn took place in the past week, resulting in outflows in 6 of past 7 weeks.However, the biggest outflow risk is not to Junk but to investment grade, that main funding source for trillions in corporate stock buybacks: it was the IG space that took another beating with largest outflows ($3.5bn) in 17 weeks!

Unleash 'The Andy Hall Algo'... it seems the quarter-, year-end mark-ups may just be required to maintain 'some' hedge funds and hold off liquidation for another quarter...

Another index bites the dust of the deflationary spiral...

It's Chrismas time. Only the scroogiest of scrooges would be laying people off this time of year and in fact this week's 267k print in initial jobless claims is back near cycle lows. The last time there were initial jobless claim in a holiday week was 1972, which raises the question - so what happens next?

According to WSJ, "the Obama administration pursued secret communications with elements of Syria’s regime over several years in a failed attempt to limit violence and get President Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power, according to U.S. and Arab officials. Early on, the U.S. looked for cracks in the regime it could exploit to encourage a military coup, but found few.”

For those stuck watching algos frontrun today's market paint drying, here is the full calendar of today's early market closures.

There is just one very big problem with this "solution"...

• Global Stocks Take Breather After Oil-Fueled Rally (WSJ)
• Junk Investors Evade the Trade (WSJ)
• How the Third Avenue Fund Melted Down (WSJ)
• Oil Traders Set to Pounce as U.S. Prepares to Lift Export Ban (BBG)
• JPMorgan Says Japan Inc. Must Prepare for Yen Below 100 a Dollar (BBG)

After a furious three day "dash for trash", no volume, no breadth, commodity-driven rally, even Santa is now exhausted and overnight US equity index futures were little changed with European and Asian shares mixed. The dollar has declines as gold, silver gain, with WTI initially continuing its recent meteoric rise (up over 8% in the past three days, nearly hitting $38), only to reverse and give up all overnight gains moments ago. Copper falls after Chinese stocks see a second day of weakness, down 0.7% while an unexpected tumble in the USDJPY to 7 weeks lows has dragged the Nikkei (-0.5%) and its futures down.

The news out of Canada - and especially out of Alberta, the heart of the country's oil patch - has just gone from disturbing to downright terrifying. 

Happy Holidays from the 'friendly' micro-aggressives at Cornell...

Rather, economic collapse is the greatest weapon at the disposal of globalists. National panic, riots, looting, starvation, magnified crime: All of these things result in mass die-offs and desperation. Desperation leads to calls for "strong leadership", and strong leadership usually results in totalitarianism. It might seem sensationalist to tie all of these possible outcomes to the Fed rate hike decision, but give it a little time. Those who make accusations of sensationalism and “fear mongering” today will be asserting tomorrow that such developments were “easily predictable.”