Archive - Dec 2015 - Story

"ISIS is an enemy of my country. ISIS is a disgrace. It puts my religion in a bad light. They don't represent Islam and I do not consider them to be Muslims.”

Canadian stocks are down 15% from their highs in 2008 (and down 18% from the 2014 highs) as the blowback from a collapsing energy market ripples across the entire "not unequivocally good" economy. However, perhaps more worrying is the 2008-esque dynamic playing out almost perfectly for America's northern neighbor...

Gold sentiment may finally be getting bearish enough to support a durable bottom.

Who could have seen that coming?

Last week we asked (rhetorically) if "something just blew up in junk?" We have the answer today, as triple-hooks (CCC-rated debt) in the junk bond market have crashed through the worst levels of 2011 and are now at the highest yields since July 2009. Amid this complacency still reigns in the equity market (just as it did when the last credit cycle turned).

“A U.S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the United States is certain that Russia was responsible for the deadly strike on the Syrian army camp,” Reuters reports, adding that “the official flatly dismissed claims that U.S.-led coalition jets were responsible.”

We're gonna need more jawboning...

The day of reckoning has arrived for the oil price. After a year of "Oil Price Crash" in October the world managed record production of 97.09 Mbpd. Production momentum built in the period of high price, 2007 to 2014, is proving very difficult to switch off. It must be switched off and it seems to me the most likely scenario is sharply lower oil price in the near term.

PREVIEW: BoE December Rate Decision & Minutes Release 1200GMT/0600CST

• All surveyed analysts expect the Bank of England to keep monetary policy unchanged, with the bank rate at 0.5% and the Asset Purchase Facility at GBP 375bln

• Headline UK CPI printed at -0.1% for October, still well below the BoE’s mandated 2% target

FANGs are tumbling, seeming to have 'peaked' as ISM Services tumbled last week. But before you rush to buy the dip on these "gems" we thought it would be helpful to review some basic fundamental data in order to clarify exactly what investors are assuming when they purchase these stocks.

The last week has seen Small Caps first drop into negative territory for the year (joining Dow Transports). Yesterday The Dow joined the un-party. And today, following growth concerns from China trade data, The S&P 500 has tumbled to open in the red for the year...

According to Bank of America last week, during which the S&P 500 was essentially flat, BofAML clients were net sellers of $1.3bn of US stocks, following two weeks of net buying. Net sales were led by institutional clients, who have sold US stocks for the last five consecutive weeks.

Just as we warned, based on credit card data, this holiday spending period is a disaster. Following disappointing sales over the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend, there has been absolutely no follow-through momentum as is usually seen. Chain Store same-store-sales crashed 6.3% week-over-week...

"We're gonna have to figure it out, we can't live like this. It's going to get worse and worse, we're going to have more World Trade Centers. It's going to get worse and worse, folks. We can be politically correct and we can be stupid but it's going to be worse and worse." Donald Trump said even as an AP summary of Muslim reactions to Trump can be summarized as follows: "He's trying to alienate not only the Muslim population of the United States but all the Muslims around the world."

How many times were we told that an OPEC decision was "priced in" - well it wasn't. WTI is now down 15% from pre-OPEC and has crashed through the $37 level for the first time since Feb 2009... time to catch a falling knife (again), or fold on all those 'recovery' bets?