Archive - Dec 2015 - Story

The next time you wonder where the Fed Chairwoman is seeing wage growth, the answer is simple: they are looking at your boss' paycheck, yours... not so much.

"Friday’s employment report clears the way for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage point at its Dec. 15-16 policy meeting, ending seven years of near-zero interest rates."

"We live in a dystopian investment world, whose markets have morphed into an Orwellian backdrop of omnipresent government intervention and manipulation that is increasingly dictated by the quant community -- who worship at the altar of prices and price momentum (and are agnostic on values)."

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 319,000 to 6.1 million in November, following declines in September and October.

As Reuters reports, "Israel has quietly tested ways of defeating an advanced air-defense system that Russia has deployed in the Middle East and that could limit Israel's ability to strike in Syria or Iran, military and diplomatic sources said."

It appears the December rate hike is now cemented following the BLS' report that November jobs rose by 211K, higher than the 200K expected, and well above Janet Yellen's "whisper" number of just 100,000 being sufficient. This follows an even stronger revision to the October number from 271K to a whopping 298K. The unemployment rate remained flat at 5.00%, in line with expectations, while hourly earnings rose 0.2% in November, just as expected.

So how do you grow household wealth by $18 trillion in the face of these dismal real world trends? In a word, with a printing press. But what happened today is that Draghi showed he is out of tricks and Yellen confessed she is out of excuses. Yes, this sucker is going down. And this time all the misguided economics professors turned central bankers in the world will be powerless to reverse the plunge.

There is a high hurdle following October's surprisingly strong gain of 271,000 jobs. On the other hand, Wall Street is confident we would have to see a significantly lower number, somewhere in the 100,000 range or even lower, — and weakness in other parts of the report, such as the unemployment rate, hourly wages and weekly hours — for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike into next year.

In a 445 “for”, 146 “against” (seven abstentions) vote, German lawmakers approved the use of six Tornado reconnaissance jets, and the deployment of a frigate to help "protect" the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off the coast of Syria. Berlin will also send refueling aircraft and up to 1,200 military personnel.

• The Jobs Report Probably Won't Change the Fed's Mind on Liftoff (BBG)
• U.S. authorities look for militant links to shooters in California mass slaying (Reuters)
• Neighbors, Acquaintances Shocked That Couple Are San Bernardino Shooting Suspects (WSJ)
• ECB Fumbles the Stimulus-Baton Hand-off, Mussing Up Fed’s Plans (WSJ)
• OPEC Heads for Status Quo as Members Clash Over Crude Output Cut (BBG)
• Foreigners drawn in as fear and loathing grip China's finance industry (Reuters)

"There has been a bunch of headlines coming out of OPEC with each contradicting the other," says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob. “It is difficult to trade in front of OPEC - the general consensus is for nothing, but when we get a soundbite that creates a bit of a reaction." However, once the OPEC meeting announces that, sorry Venezuela but nothing changes, expect the early upward bias to crude prices to promptly reverse.

Optimism in US equity futures appears to have returned, and as of this moment US equity futures are higher by 9 points to 2060 as the attention shifts to what, according to BofA, is truly the most important ever. It is unclear just how the algos would take a second consecutive major disappointment in a row: should today's NFP print be well below the 200,000 consensus, December rate hike odd will tumble and the EUR will surge even more after declining modestly from overnight highs just below 1.10, leading to even more losses in European equities and spilling over to the US. 

"QE2 moved Repo rates, on average, 2.7 basis points for every $100B in QE. So, one very rough estimate moved GC 8 basis points and the other 2.7 basis points per hundred billion. In order to move GC 25 basis points higher, in a very rough estimate, the Fed needs to drain between $310B and $800B in liquidity."

Update: DMV releases driver's license photo of Farook

In a press briefing on Thursday, San Bernardino officials catalogued the weapons and ammo discovered in the vehicle and home of Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik who killed 21 and wounded 14 on Wednesday. Additionally, CNN (citing "sources") says Farook was likely "radicalized." The pair were "well equipped" and could have staged another attack, police say.