Archive - Jan 2015 - Story

Equity futures markets have opened with a flush lower as Friday afternoon's anxiety was proved correct by the Greek vote this afternoon. S&P 500 Futures dropped over 15 points at the open before bouncing back modestly. With FX markets now more fully open, the kneejerk moves in the early illiquid trading have stabilized. EURUSD is 65 pips lower, breaking below 1.1150 (with BNY Mellon suggesting a move below 1.10 is possible in the next 24 hours and Citi noting any further risk-off contagion could be satiated by ECB QE). Swissy is bid with EURCHF down over 40 pips at around 0.9820. Gold and USD/JPY are flat for now.

It is well known that Japan faces a demographic crisis, as it's aging population (more than 1 in 4 over 65 years old) drags on economic potential. But at the other end of the age spectrum, Japan has a bigger problem: as Bloomberg's Emily Greenhouse calls it - a libido crisis. The birthrate is falling fast. By 2060, the population is expected to go down by a third, and, by 2100, if trends continue, by 61%. Simply put, there is not enough procreation. We previously noted the fact that young Japanese has stopped having sex, but the situation has got worse and government and economists are looking for solutions: from imposing "handsome taxes" to make it easier for uglier men to get laid, to changing women's attitudes towards sex as "bothersome." However, we suspect this phrase sums up the 'virtual' problem best, "I want to tell them that human women are also great fun!"

The first public address of Greece's new leaders, Alexis Tsipras has begun. The key highlights of his speech so far:

TSIPRAS SAYS GREEK PEOPLE HAVE WRITTEN HISTORY
TSIPRAS SAYS GREECE IS TURNING PAGE, LEAVING AUSTERITY BEHIND
TSIPRAS SAYS BAILOUT AGREEMENTS HAVE ENDED FOR GREECE
TSIPRAS SAYS TROIKA ERA IS OVER FOR GREECE

Europe will not be pleased.

"...if Greece’s rebellion was to occur in a coherent way,...it would be only a matter of time before it was replicated in other parts of the continent." But don't think 'they' will let it happen peacefully. They'll organize huge social unrest, inject violence, and then try to use it to clamp down on the population and reinforce their grip on power. This won't remain confined to Greece.

Take from the 'redefined rich' and give to the who again?

"CHILLY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK." - National Weather Service

"...as the Swiss National Bank has shown, risk can come back with a vengeance. The same thing can happen of course, in any other market. If the Federal Reserve wants to pursue an "exit" to its intervention, if it wants to go down this path, well, volatility is going to come back.  Everything else equal, it means asset prices have to be priced lower. That is the problem if you base an economic recovery exclusively on asset price inflation. We are going to have our hands full trying to kind of move on from here. In that context, what the Swiss National Bank has done is it is just a canary in the coal mine that there will be more trouble ahead."

Despite all the fear-mongering by Nea Demokratia (ND), Syriza's victory over the incumbent is dramatically larger than expected (exit polls indicate a potential 12 point margin vs 7 point spreads in the run-up). However, as JPMorgan details, the fear-mongery was very evident in bank deposit runs as proxied outflows surge EUR8 billion last week - more than all of December and the rest of January combined...

UPDATE: Greek Government official admits electoral defeat by Syriza

According to the initial exit polls, in first place, with some 35.5%-39.5% of the vote is Syriza, a huge lead over the second placing New Democracy which has 23-27% of the vote - far more than polls had indicated previously 0 and a place which practically assures Tsipras' party an absolute majority.

This is what Goldman has to say in order to assure that clients flood Goldman's prop pardon flow traders with "Buy USD" orders: orders which Goldman, being on the other side, will be delighted to fill.

Will today be the beginning of the end of the Eurozone? The answer, as of this moment, is in the hands of some 9.8 million eligible to vote Greeks whose choice will determine the shape of the Eurozone in the coming days and months.

"My humble thesis tonight is that the entire 20th Century was a giant mistake. And that you can put the blame for this monumental error squarely on Thomas Woodrow Wilson - a megalomaniacal madman who was the very worst President in American history... well, except for the last two."

Following the deaths of 36 bankers last year, 2015 has got off to an inauspicious start with the reported suicide of Chris Van Eeghen - the 4th ABN Amro banker suicide in the last few years. As Quotenet reports, the death of Van Eghen  - the head of ABN's corporate finance and capital markets -"startled" friends and colleagues as the 42-year-old "had a great reputation" at work, came from an "illustrious family," and enjoyed national fame briefly as the boyfriend of a famous actress/model. As one colleague noted, "he was always cheerful, good mood, and apparently he had everything your heart desired. He never sat in the pit, never was down, so I was extremely surprised. I can not understand." Most believe that the suicide is not related to his work at the bank, but a former colleague had noticed that on his Facebook recently changed its job title to "former." Chris leaves behind a son - who had recently been cleared of cancer.

When you read about female doctors feeling forced to prostitute themselves to feed their children, about the number of miscarriages doubling, and about the overall sense of helplessness and destitution among the Greek population, especially the young, who see no way of even starting to build a family, then I can only say: Brussels is a bunch of criminals. And Draghi’s QE announcement is a criminal act. It’s a good thing the bond-buying doesn’t start until March, and that it’s on a monthly basis: that means it can still be stopped.

With Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath warning - in no lesser status-quo narrative-deliverer than The Wall Street Journal - that The ECB's actions (and pre-emptive collapse in the EUR) means the U.S. economy must deal with a rapidly strengthening dollar that will make American goods more expensive abroad, potentially slowing both U.S. growth and inflation; and Treasury Secretary Lew coming out his crypt to mention "unfair FX moves," it appears The Fed (and powers that be) are worrying about King Dollar. This suggests, as Mises Canada's Patrick Barron predicts, the Fed will start charging negative interest rates on bank reserve accounts as the final tool in the war on savings and wealth in order to spur the Keynesian goal of increasing “aggregate demand”. If savers won’t spend their money, the government will take it from them.