Archive - Jan 2015 - Story

Why does one believe the word “catastrophe” was used by The Fed's Charlie Evans? Hmmmmm? After all, the very articulated and polished minutes of what members expressed to one another as to set the current policy was just made public. We thought the verbiage of choice was now “patient.” Unless... You know you’ve either lost, or in the process, of losing control of the markets ear. In our opinion, this is an unveiled showing of possible outright panic developing behind the proverbial curtain.

While in no way minimizing the terror that must have been extreme among the drivers and passengers of these 200 vehicles as they slowed, slid, and slammed into one another on I-94 (near Battle Creek, Michigan), one can't help but analogize to the two most crowded trades in the world right now and what happens when the traders' "liquidity" is the same as the drivers' "visibility."

Let’s focus on what happened in the lead up to the summer of 2011, right before the markets cratered on the back of everything that was going on in Europe and the downgrade of the US' credit rating by S&P. The leveraged loans index peaked at the start of the year and traded sideways up until that eventful August. This was a sign that something was not right in the credit markets; and equities pretty much followed the same pattern.  If we fast forward to today, we can see that the leveraged loans index peaked in July 2014, indicated by the red line in the graph, and has noticeably declined since; at the same time equities continued to move higher, a divergence which is a novelty in this bull market. Is this telling us something?  We believe so - it is a red flag for equities.

A day when over 700,000 people are said to have taken part in marches across France in Paris, Orleans, Nice, Pau, Toulouse and Nantes, following three days of deadly attacks in the Paris area to commemorate the victims' memories, there was another attack which may be tied to the Charlie Hebdo tragedy, this time by unknown assailants who launched an incendiary device on the building of German newspaper Hamburger Morgenpost shortly after 2am local time when nobody was in the building, and which, as Bloomberg reports, had in recent days reproduced the cartoons published by Charlie Hebdo. 

"This is why Putin is Public Enemy Number 1. It’s because he’s blocking the US pivot to Asia, strengthening anti-Washington coalitions, sabotaging US foreign policy objectives in the Middle East, creating institutions that rival the IMF and World Bank, transacting massive energy deals with critical US allies, increasing membership in an integrated, single-market Eurasian Economic Union, and attacking the structural foundation upon which the entire US empire rests, the dollar." Up to now, of course, Russia, Iran and Venezuela have taken the biggest hit from low oil prices; but what the Obama administration should be worried about is the second-order effects that will eventually show up...

"The median New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock is currently at a postwar record high P/E multiple, a record high relative to cash flow, and near a record high relative to book value!  As of June 2014, the median U.S. stock was priced at a post-war high at slightly more than 20 times earnings! Similarly, at about 15 times, the median stock is also currently priced at a record high relative to cash flow. Finally, the median price to book value ratio has only been higher than it is currently in two years since 1951 (in 1969 and in 1998 which were both followed by significant declines)!" - Jim Paulsen

France’s president, François Hollande, described the attack as an “act of exceptional barbarity.” But killing people is hardly exceptional – neither for the empire nor its enemies. It is routine. And great empires follow their well-trodden paths, too, no matter what mockery they encounter. That path leads in a familiar direction – freedom of speech is chilled. But we know of no instances in which foreign enemies put it on ice. Usually, it is the empire’s own bureaucrats, snoops and protectors who do the chilling. And that cooling is already under way.

Be afraid, be very afraid. While French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said Friday "The nation is relieved tonight," after the two standoffs concluded, as CNN reports, the French government's work is not over. French law enforcement officers have been told to erase their social media presence and to carry their weapons at all times because terror sleeper cells have been activated over the last 24 hours in the country, according to a French police source. Investigations continue into which terrorist group was ultimately responsible and, not be outdone in the fearmongery, The US State Department has issued a Worldwide Caution warning travelers, of the "continuing threat of terrorist actions and violence against U.S. citizens and interests throughout the world." Thank goodness we have the governments to protect us.

The following documentary explains in detail how Japan’s post-war economic, political and social system was manipulated by the Japanese central bank. In all the gory detail, and worryingly prophetic of the current state of most western nations, "Princes of the Yen" reveals how Japanese society was transformed to suit the agenda and desire of powerful interest groups, and how citizens were kept entirely in the dark about this. It is an unprecedented challenge to today's dominant ideological belief system, and the control levers that underpin it. Piece by piece, reality is deconstructed to reveal the world as it is, not as those in power would like us to believe that it is..."Because only power that is hidden is power that endures."

Some speech is 'free-er' than others...

Having topped the charts for beheadings in 2014, and enforced gender segregation, US ally Saudi Arabia has decided that free-speech is 'practically' punishable by death. During a week when 'free speech' is being defended by every Western nation desparate to condemn the terrorist acts against France's satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, it is therefore quite stunning that, as The BBC reports, Raif Badawi - a Saudi Arabian blogger - was sentenced to 1,000 lashes (carried out over 50 weekly floggings), and 10 years in jail for insulting Islam. With 'friends' like this, who needs enemies?

For all those who are long the USD and short the 10Y, good luck because everyone else is too...

With crude oil prices in a strong corrective mode, energy depletion is understandably not on people’s minds these days. However, this is a scenario that many of us might have to deal with at some point in our lifetimes. We might be swimming in oil for now, but this should be no reason to become complacent. Our children and grandchildren will thank us for it.

Unemployment rate plunging? Job creation surging? Sure doesn't feel like that across America... this is why...