Archive - Jan 2015 - Story

If we review the events of 2014, it seems the situation has intensified: governments are still overwhelmed with debt, our fiat money system is unsupported, our central banks insist on accumulating debt and making money valueless. Will someone realize we have to pull the plug? And when we do, because it will happen whether we want it or not, how can we hedge against the damage that we will all be exposed to? Owning physical precious metals stored outside the banking system is a proven and essential form of monetary insurance against the uncertainties and negative surprises we see in our world today.

The entire theory of monetarism is coming undone in spectacular and empirical fashion, which leaves the entire status quo exposed. All that is left in defense is the same old refrain of “it wasn’t big enough.” That’s great for those in the ivory towers blinding themselves to the reality of a lost generation of Italians, Spaniards, French and now even Germans; a listing to which even the FOMC is worried may yet add Americans. Why anyone ever expected a different outcome is due solely to unrepentant ideology, since these central banks are following almost exactly the Japanese “model.”

Career-ending mistake, or the biggest Freudian slip in history?

Goldman Sachs expects nonfarm payroll job growth of 230k in December, slightly below the consensus forecast of 240k. Labor market indicators continue to point to a strong pace of employment gains, but softened on balance in December. In particular, jobless claims rose modestly and the employment components of service sector business surveys weakened somewhat. With respect to wages, we expect a softer +0.1% gain in average hourly earnings following an unusually large gain in November. On balance, labor market indicators looked somewhat softer in December, but remain consistent with a solid trend rate of employment growth.

The mainstream media narrative - that Germany is ready and prepared for Grexit and that it is no longer a threat to financial stability - is all hype, according to German opposition finance minister Joachim Poss. As Bloomberg reports, all that is mostly posturing for an electorate tired of the aid and angst Greece has demanded since 2010. Simply put, the potential for Euro instability from a Grexit is a detriment to Germany's massive benefits from the single currency - "Europe can’t afford a Greek exit," Poss concludes, complacency by Merkel is "playing with fire."

Make no mistake: the Internet of Things is just Big Brother in a more appealing disguise. Even so, we're not suggesting we all become Luddites. However, we need to be aware of how quickly a helpful device that makes our lives easier can become a harmful weapon that enslaves us.

Must be over-supply too, right? Just like oil prices... The Baltic Dry Index - which apparently is only relevant when it is rising - has never been lower at this time of year. Perhaps GDP expectations, bond yields, crude oil prices, and credit risk are on to something about the global economy after all?

What's the difference between a non-voting and a voting dovish member of the Federal Reserve? About 20 S&P 500 points...

With the number of college graduates working minimum wage jobs nearly 71% higher than it was a decade ago, and the average graduate leaving college with $29,400 in debt (crushing their hopes of leveraging up to buy that American Dream-creating house), President Obama has unleashed a double whammy of ideas in the last few days. Reducing mortgage insurance and cutting down-payment restrictions for FHA loans (i.e. providing huge leverage to segments of society to repeat the mistakes of the last housing bubble); and now, as The LA Times reports, President Obama says he is rolling out a plan to make two years of community college free, or nearly so, to every student across the country. Because it's "fair"?

Nearly two-thirds of all Americans are completely and totally unprepared for the next economic crisis.

The stealth LBO of the S&P 500 will not only continue in 2015 but accelerate, with another 2% of the entire market cap converted into debt, thanks to a whopping $450 billion in net corporate inflows, $35 billion more than the $415 billion in corporate inflows in 2014.

Today's WTF moment of the day comes courtesy of The Daily Signal, in which we read that while speaking at his first press conference since being narrowly reelected as House speaker after some 24 republicans defected, the Ohio Republican argued he is the "most anti-establishment speaker we’ve ever had."  Actually... no. And here's why...

Introduce a regulation over here, an unintended consequence pops up over there. Then there are more regulations to deal with the unintended consequences. Regulations have added 100 times the volatility to one of the most liquid and ordinary derivatives in the world - the plain-vanilla EFP. Less liquidity, more volatility - welcome to 2015.

"This is pretty obscene," exclaims Ron Paul with regard the massacre in Paris, "libertarians are pretty annoyed by anybody who initiates violence." But, he adds, "I put blame on bad policy that we don’t fully understand," pointing out Western inability to see foreign policy from the attackers' perspective, as "they see us killing innocent people... that doesn't justify it... but it does explain it."

Over the weekend, we saw the first casualty of low oil prices as WBH Energy went into bankruptcy. Today, Bloomberg reports,Resolute Energy Corp. has been forced by low oil prices to borrow at distressed levels. The Denver-based company, which we previously highlighted as having a 4.5x Debt/EBITDA (there are a lot higher), managed to procure a new $150 million 2nd term loan from Highbridge Capital (mostly used to roll old debt). The cost of funding: 11% coupon plus 5% upfront (and a guaranteed 25% return for the lender if Resolute pays it back early). At that cost of funding, it is no wonder that Resolute's bonds remain, to borrow a Charlie Evans phrase, catastrophically priced.