Archive - Jan 2015 - Story

If you want to know where the global experiment in massive money printing is heading - just take a look at the monetary madhouse in Europe. And that particular phrase has full resonance once again as it becomes more apparent by the hour that Europe and the Euro were not fixed at all. Indeed, beneath the surface of Draghi’s “whatever it takes” time out, the crisis has been metastasizing into ever more virulent deformations.

Broadly speaking, as markets recovered from mid 2009 (amid extreme monetary policy experimentation around the world), economic growth and asset prices were in sync around the world. When markets faltered after the end of QE2 in 2011 and the Fed folded on moderation, investors around the world piled into US equity and credit markets chasing the 'easiest' money in the world. Then as China unleashed its own QE-Lite and the Fed confirmed the end of QE, tidal waves of fresh speculative capital flooded a small, illiquid market on the other side of the planet... and hey presto, The Last Bubble market was created.

After seeking doctors, lawyers, and engineers, The Islamic State - expanding on its desire to launch a gold-backed currency - is reported to have opened its first bank in the Iraqi city of Mosul and delivered a budget for its 'territory'. All this is being done, according to Al Jazeera, in an effort to move beyond its image of a terrorist organisation and consolidate its aim of becoming a legitimate state (perhaps stop beheading western media?) "A strategy to make concrete decisions and actions to create a nation state is in place," notes one professor, but as another analyst explains, "ISIS is financing itself partly through a pyramid scheme, and this has begun to falter.”

The most bizarre story from the past weekend was the shocking murder of Tom Gilbert, 70, founder of the Wainscott biotech-focused hedge fund, who was shot dead in his Sutton Place apartment on Sunday Afternoon: shocking because the alleged shooter was none other than his Millennial 30-year-old son. What was certainly unclear at the time was what would be the motivation of a son to kill his successful and wealthy father, especially in such dramatic cold blood. We now know not only the motivation, but also the alleged psychopath's background: "Gilbert Jr. attended Princeton, graduating in 2009 with a degree in economics. Authorities said he had no recent work history."

"...we believe the current low crude oil price could be overkill and result in the next “Energy Crisis” by early 2016. Enjoy these low gasoline prices while they last."

Remember when shortly after ISIS' stunning and rapid ascent to power it was revealed that a key reason for the terrorist organization's blistering success were the M-1 Abrams tanks, armored transport trucks, Howitzers and countless Humvees made in the US, sold to Iraq and subsequently captured by ISIS? It appears that the US has decided to restock ISIS, if only indirectly. As Matthew Aid's Strategypage.com discloses, the US is now selling a whopping 170 M-1 tanks to Iraq in order to restock the 40 lost to ISIS last summer, and then some. And since ISIS will promptly recapture a substantial portion of this latest batch, the US now appears to have found a fully covert, backdoor ISIS-restocking supply channel: one where Iraq pays to US military contrators (using US taxpayer aid money) such as General Dynamics, and subsequently the inventory mysteriosuly finds its way to barbaian, headcutting terrorists.

Some are thinking that 2015 will be a repeat of 2014 with a few incremental changes, However, the interesting question to ask is, how has the ground shifted in 2014, if indeed it has? To our mind, the really interesting development of 2014 is that the world as a whole (with a few minor exceptions) has become quite lucid on the topic of what the United States, as a global empire, is and stands for. Another major shift we have observed is that a significant percentage of the thinking people in the US no longer trusts their national media. In case somebody out there in the media realm is tired of playing it safe and printing stuff that's only fit for wiping your Kardashian with, here are a some points for you to try to refute...

Christmas Bills...

Over the past couple of years there has been a rising chorus of individuals warming to the idea of a new secular bull market. This is not surprising given the seemingly unstoppable rise of asset prices since the financial crisis despite a litany of geopolitical and economic headwinds. But are the "ingredients" that spurred the previous two secular bull market periods in existence today?

Presented with absolutely no biased, judgmental, cognitively dissonant comments at all...

Albuquerque police officer Lou Golson was shot by a motorist during traffic stop. According to criminal complaints, Golson suffered a gunshot wound in the abdomen. A gunshot to the chest and two other gunshots to his left side did not penetrate his bullet proof vest, the complaint said. However, Golson broke a left femur and suffered a broken wrist during his fall.

It’s no longer about which factors bring down oil prices, that’s old news; it’s about what oil prices bring down. The oil price drop is a much bigger event than the US subprime housing crisis, it’s bigger than everything put together that happened in 2008. And this time, central banks are lame sitting ducks. Omnipotence is a harsh mistress. She tends to backfire.

Just a few short hours after a series of deep, if not very strong, eartquakes shook north-central Oklahoma, moments ago the ground zero of the US energy industry, the city of Dallas, TX, felt the ground shaking. According to the USGS, this was due to a 3.5 magnitude quake, which stuck at a depth of some 3.2 miles below the Texas city.

From Bill Gross: "I’ll leave the specific forecasting for a few weeks’ time and sum it up in a few quick sentences for now: Beware the Ides of March, or the Ides of any month in 2015 for that matter. When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes. The good times are over....  Be cautious and content with low positive returns in 2015. The time for risk taking has passed."

Another quarter down, which means we can once again assess where the forward P/E multiple of the S&P stands relative to the previous two market bubble peaks.