Archive - Feb 2015 - Story

• Greece to submit loan request to euro zone, Germany resists (Reuters)
• Ukrainian forces start to quit besieged town (Reuters)
• Bank of Japan maintains policy, no surprises (FT)
• China Considering Mergers Among Its Big State Oil Companies (WSJ)
• Soros Shifts to Europe, Asia as Investors Cut U.S. Equities (BBG)
• Putin tells Kiev to let troops surrender as Ukraine ceasefire unravels (Reuters)
• Venezuela Squanders Its Oil Wealth (BBG)
• Swiss prosecutor raids HSBC office, opens criminal inquiry (Reuters)

There was much confusion yesterday when algos went into a buying frenzy on news that Greece would submit a request for a 6 month loan extension, believing this means Greece has caved and will agree to a bailout programme extension as well. Nothing could have been further from the truth as we explained first moments after the headline struck, and also as Reuters validated moments ago when it said that "Greece will submit a request to the euro zone on Wednesday to extend a "loan agreement" for up to six months but EU paymaster Germany says no such deal is on offer and Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout." But since the political nuances of diplomacy are lost on the math Ph.Ds who program the market-moving algos, the S&P did manage to roar above 2100 on what was another headfake and then forgot to sell off on the reality.

America appears to have found something else to blame the Russians (or North Koreans) for... The Weather. As The Daily Mail reports, CIA chiefs fear hostile nations are trying to manipulate the world’s climate... seriously.

None of us are perfect. All of us bend the rules occasionally. Indeed, there was a time when most Americans thought nothing of driving a few miles over the speed limit, pausing (rather than coming to a full stop) at a red light when making a right-hand turn if no one was around, or jaywalking across the street. My, how times have changed. Today, there’s little room for indiscretions, imperfections, or acts of independence. In such an environment, you’re either a paragon of virtue, or you’re a criminal. If you haven’t figured it out yet, we’re all criminals. This is the creepy, calculating yet diabolical genius of the American police state: the very technology we hailed as revolutionary and liberating has become our prison, jailer, probation officer, Big Brother and Father Knows Best all rolled into one.

"There is a great game of poker taking place for the future of this currency," Nigel Farage exclaims as he  deservedly takes a small victory lap over his warnings of the anti-democratic nature of the dis-union that has been created. As his warnings that "the EU will crush, and kill, and destroy nation state democracy," have gone unheeded, this last week has seen The Eurogroup's behavior justify everything Farage has feared... Juncker: "there can be no democratic choice against the Euro."

From 'Armageddon' to 'Day After Tomorrow' to 'Independence Day', many have speculated as to the eventual demise of human life on the planet but - according to Dennis Pamlin of the Global Challenges Foundation, no scientists had "compiled a list of global risks with impacts that, for all practical purposes, can be called infinite,” until now. The following list of 12 possible ways that human civilization might end - ranked from least to most likely, come with a warning, "we don’t want to be accused of scaremongering but we want to get policy makers talking." We suspect Paul Krugman will be happy at the economic growth potential...

One thing is becoming clear: Greece will almost certainly not last until the proverbial D-Day on February 28 before it either i) runs out of money, ii) is forced to sign a "bailout extension" deal with the Eurogroup thus crushing its credibility with the people, or iii) exits the Eurozone. Needless to say, two of the three above options are very unpleasant for Greek savers, assuming any are left. And it is those savers that the Eurozone is directly targeting when it does everything in its power to provoke a bank run with statement such as these: "The situation of the banks is getting more and more difficult every day," said a European official. "In the end, in order to safeguard the banking system, capital controls will probably have to be imposed."

Operation Choke Point is an initiative of the DoJ that was announced in 2013 which investigates bank interactions with certain businesses believed to be at higher risk for fraud and money laundering. When first disclosed it was heavily criticised for bypassing due process with critics warning that "it's a thinly veiled ideological attack on industries the Obama administration doesn't like, such as gun sellers," and precious metals dealers. However, as Mike Maloney explains, it is far worse than that... "it violates the most fundamental principles of the rule of law and accountable, transparent government."

Back in 1940, the US plan was to "entrap" Japan to declare war on the US - a declaration which the US would have long anticipated - which would then allow America to engage Europe and Hitler as part of its broader entry into World War II from which it had been previously separated. The plan worked out when just over a year later, Japan bombed Pearl Harbor. Today, some 75 years later, is that same plan being redrawn?

Parsing the Russian media (corporate and social) illustrates the stunningly different way the issue of western sanctions is discussed. As we show below, there are six notable factors that leave an entirely unavoidable conclusion: western sanctions have exactly zero chance of achieving any change at all in Russian foreign policy and exactly zero chance of weakening the current regime. In fact perhaps the opposite.

When Obama interrupted the Grammy's to discuss sexual abuse and rape victims, he probably did not have this in mind...

State Department spokesperson Marie Harf explains to no lesser pillar of unbiased reporting than Chris Matthews that - as opposed to President Obama's 'bomb them into oblivion' perspective, "we can't kill our way out of this war [with ISIS]... we must address the root causes - like joblessness." Even Matthews is stunned at this perspective, exclaiming "we're never going to chieve that in 50 lifetimes, there'll always be poor muslims." But, as the administration appears to be suggesting, even every radical muslim deserves $10.25 an hour to work at Baghdad McDonalds...

While Obama desperately tries to stick to his now crushed "Nobel peace prize winner" image, by not succumbing to an all-out land war in the one nation where his progressive "pacifism" brought him fame (and according to some, the presidency), namely Iraq, the rest of militant, "interventionist" US foreign policy is rapidly starting to resemble that waged by the most brutally rabid, neo-con Republican leader. Case in point an absolute stunner reported minutes ago by the WSJ, according to which the White House has decided to provide pickup trucks equipped with mounted machine guns and radios for calling in U.S. airstrikes to some moderate Syrian rebels aided by American B-1B bombers!

The "conundrum" between lower gasoline prices and retail sales is not really one at all. Furthermore, the real story behind the weakness in retail sales also suggest that something is "amiss" within the broader economic backdrop. When combined with the deterioration in earnings, the risk of a "gotcha" moment in the market has risen markedly.