Archive - Feb 2015 - Story

While faith in Japanese 'economics' is starting to falter (borne out by the split in the BoJ and endless macro data disappointments), trust in TEPCO and its governmental operators must be about to hit a new record low. Having promised and given up on the ice-wall strategy to stop radioactive water leaking into the ocean, Bloomberg reports TEPCO officials have admitted that it’s investigating the cause of a spike in radiation levels (23,000 becquerels/liter vs the legal limit of 90) in drainage water that it believes subsequently leaked into the Pacific ocean from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant. The bigger problem, as NBC reports, TEPCO failed to report the leak for 10 months!

Janet Yellen is very alarmed that some members of Congress want to conduct a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve for the first time since it was created. During testimony this week, she made “central bank independence” sound like it was the holy grail. Even though every other government function is debated politically in this country, Janet Yellen insists that what the Federal Reserve does is “too important” to be influenced by the American people. Does any other government agency ever dare to make that claim? If the Fed is doing everything correctly, why should Yellen be alarmed? What does she have to hide?

It appears all the emerging/emerged economies of the world that are supposed to be the dynamic growth engines to lead the world to escape velocity are, well, not. Perhaps no better example is Brazil where hyper-growth expectations have disappeared into a black hole as business and consumer confidence collapsed this week to historical lows. As Goldman noted, "This poses major headwinds for private consumption and overall activity in the coming months."

Within the Earth’s crust, there is 1 gram of silver for every 12.5 tonnes of earth (27,600 lbs). This makes silver very difficult to find. The total amount of silver mined in global history is enough to create a 52m cube. So who controls that supply?

Amid the to-ing and fro-ing of John Kerry and the nuclear program negotiations, it seemed quite ironic that Iran would unleash a major naval drill near the strategically vital entrance of the Persian Gulf. As AP reports, more than a dozen swarming Iranian speedboats assaulted a replica of a U.S. aircraft carrier, as the Guard's navy chief, Adm. Ali Fadavi, who last month boasted that his force is capable of sinking American aircraft carriers in the event of war, said on state television, "American aircraft carriers are very big ammunition depots housing a lot of missiles, rockets, torpedoes and everything else."

No; Mr. Obama has not seen “the great light,” remaining as blind in Middle East affairs as he has been in his belligerent, anti-Russia approach in Eastern Europe.  He, like Don Quixote, is still riding his Rocinante as he charges the windmills.  Saint Paul did see the great light and is now known as Apostle of the Gentiles.  As for Obama, given his present lackluster status, it’s unlikely he will be politically canonized, much less be known someday as Political Apostle of either Americans or Non-Americans.

Times, they are a'changing. For the first time in 75 years, according to multiple reports, CBS News reports, a new edition of Adolf Hitler's "Mein Kampf" will be bound for sale in bookstores in Germany. While the book, long known as "the Nazi bible," is widely available in the U.S. and much of the English-speaking world, it was for years banned from being reprinted in Germany over fears it would reignite the passions that plunged the country into World War II. Still, amid rising anti-semitism across Europe and a surge in nationalism, the timing is odd and as the head of Munich's Jewish community exclaimed, "this book is most evil."

In the global geopolitical chess game, does size matter?

Behavioral economics suggests that a little QE can change human behavior at the margins, but no amount of QE is enough to change human nature at its core. The High Priests of the IMF, the Fed, and the ECB are blind to this because all of modern economic theory – ALL of it – is based on a single bedrock assumption: humans are economic maximizers. Yes, we are maximizers of reward. But we are also minimizers of regret. We seem destined to learn the hard way... once again...  that you can’t change human nature by government fiat. But individual investors and allocators can listen and learn from these old good ideas, and that’s how you survive the Golden Age of the Central Banker.

Back in March 2014 we forecast that it in the aftermath of the US State Department-sponsored military coup in Kiev, it was only a matter of time before Ukraine (all of its sovereign gold having since "vaporized") succumbed to full blown hyperinflation and economic implosion. Less than a year later, precisely this outcome has finally played out, and as a result, the entire nation has finally entered its economic endgame, one which has two conclusion: either it joins Greece in becoming a ward of Europe (of which it is not an official member) and the IMF (thank you Joe Q Public taxpayer), or it quietly fades away into insolvent "failed state" status. 

Nasdaq 5,000 or bust (or maybe ...and bust). The following clip came to mind as we see the Nasdaq ceaselessy inflated day after day, defended as 'different this time' on every mainstream media channel, and increasingly focused on fewer and fewer large stocks...

While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling - breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well...

“Based upon a review of your account, there has been no such qualifying activity and it is therefore subject to being classified as abandoned if you do not act quickly... If we fail to hear from you the account will be escheated to the state and closed.”

Sovereign Risk is the biggest risk out there. You cannot ever underestimate the desperate tactics and procedures of bankrupt governments.

Using the subject heading “you should definitely check this out,” Thomas A. Kennedy, CEO of the defense contractor Raytheon, reportedly emailed President Obama today with yet another link to an article detailing mounting tensions in Libya...