Archive - Mar 13, 2015 - Story

Despite record high net worth and record high stock markets, the US Consumer is not amused. UMich survey of Consumer Sentiment for March tumbled from 95.4 to 91.2 (against expectations of a rise to 95.5) for the biggest miss since Feb 2006. This was the biggest one-month drop since Oct 2013. Quite unbelievably, the survey director says the drop was driven by a slide in lower-income group sentiment caused by weather! And finally, it appears the data was 'leaked' 3-4 minutes early as Nanex noted, liquidity disappeared from e-minis at 0956ET.

As HFT shops begin to turn on each other, it seems appropriate to reflect on the impact that Michael Lewis' Flash Boys book had on exposing the ugly truth that many have been discussing for years in US (and international) equity (and non-equity) markets. As Lewis concludes, after explaining the attacks he has suffered from the HFT industry, "If I didn't do more to distinguish 'good' H.F.T. from 'bad' H.F.T., it was because I saw, early on, that there was no practical way for me or anyone else... to do it. ...  The big banks and the exchanges [have] been paid to compromise investors’ interests while pretending to guard those interests. I was surprised more people weren’t angry with them."

"We believe that the key force pushing commodity markets higher has been retail investor inflows into oil ETFs [and] apart from the obvious disconnect between recent price trends and physical fundamentals, the rationale of going long oil on an expected normalization or 'mean reversion' also suffers from an incomplete view of how commodity returns are generated," Goldman says on the way to predicting further weakness for crude.

US Producer Price Index (ex food and energy) fell 0.5% MoM in February (against expectations of a 0.1% rise) - the biggest drop on record (since 2009).The great news for Americans is that the drop in overall producer prices was led by a 1.6% fall in food prices. Year-over-Year PPI Final Demand has fallen (-0.6%) for the first time on record.

Following reports that after unexpectedly rescheduling two preannounced high level meetings, the social networks erupted with a cornucopia of theories and "confirmed" reports that the Russian president is sick, had a stroke, or has outright died. To be sure this is not the first time the 62-year-old's health has been put into question, the last time being 2012 when rumors swirled again. However this time it got so bad even Bloomberg felt it was relevant to ask "Where is Vladimir Putin." This morning the Kremlin answered.

While none of the catalysts are new (IEA warning temporary stabilization amid rising oil glut and increased US production), it appears the February bounce is done as our discussions of storage limitations gains traction among the ETF-driven knife-catchers. April WTI Crude futures have collapsed in the last few days from over $52 to a $45 handle now - the lowest since January and only marginally above cycle lows... As oil cratered so EURUSD slipped and S&P futures fell.

• Again as first reported here: Record U.S. Oil Glut May Fill Storage, Cut Prices (BBG)
• IEA sees renewed pressure on oil prices as glut worsens (Reuters)
• No EU unanimity on renewing Russia economic sanctions (Reuters)
• Tsipras says Greece doing its part in euro zone deal (Reuters)
• ECB Set to Buy Fewer Bonds as Price Gains Ease Crunch (BBG)
• These Americans Are Getting Rich Trading Derivatives Banned in the U.S. (BBG)
• U.S. 2015 profits forecast to grow 1.7 percent; oil, dollar are concerns (Reuters) - in a month this will say "decline"
• Manhunt for shooting suspects grinds on in Ferguson, Missouri (Reuters)

Following the dramatic December surge in Russian interest rates when the Bank of Russia scrambled to preserve confidence in the then-plummeting currency and sent the interest rate to a whopping 17%, now that the oil price crash has stabilized it has been walking down this dramatic move, and after reducing rates by 2% on January 30 to 15%, moments ago the Bank of Russia once again cut rates this time by the expected 100 bps to 14%. The bank also said that more rate cuts are in the pipeline.

Closing out another whirlwind week, which has seen the biggest S&P 500 intraday plunge and surge in months, futures are taking a breath (if not so much the Nikkei which closed over 19,000 for the first time since 2000 - one wonders how many direct equity interventions it took the BOJ to achieve that artificial "price discovery"). In lieu of any notable macro news, the most significant update hit less than an hour ago when Goldman piled on the EUR pressure, when it released a note in which it further revised down its EURUSD forecast.