Archive - Mar 2015 - Story

"At least one guest left a New York restaurant with the impression Bernanke, 60, does not expect the federal funds rate, the Fed's main benchmark interest rate, to rise back to its long-term average of around 4 percent in Bernanke's lifetime. "Shocking when he said this," the guest scribbled in his notes. "Is that really true?" he scribbled at another point, according to the notes reviewed by Reuters."

The March FOMC statement and projections suggested that September rather than June appears to be the most likely date for the first hike of the fed funds rate. Although the change to the "patient" forward guidance was close to expectations, the shift in the "dot plot" was most consistent with two rather than three 25 basis point hikes to the target range occurring in 2015. In addition, changes to the Committee's economic assessment were a bit more dovish.

With a firm "no comment" Janet Yellen shied away from burstng the bubble in "extremely stretched" Biotech and Social Media stocks, but was forced to admit that "overall measures of equity valluations are on the high side." Then, rather oddly, she notes that The Fed sees unusually low spreads in corporate bond markets... which is odd since they have actually widened dramatically in the last year or so, perhaps signalling just how "high" valuations are in stocks...

Who knows?

Having created quite a storm with her statement, it is time for Fed Chair Janet Yellen's press conference to confirm that nothing's changed, USD strength is a 'net positive', there are no bubbles (apart from in bonds, which you should sell...), and any economic weakness/crash is merely transitory and weather-based...

"Moar Trade" On... 10Y under 2.00%, Gold Spiking...

Evan as The "boxed-in" Fed nears the vinegar strokes of its easing cycle, today's statement continued to offer something for everyone (hawks, doves, bulls, & bears) to hold onto:

• *FED DROPS PATIENT STANCE ON INTEREST-RATE RISE GUIDANCE (hawk)
  
• *FED SAYS ECONOMY `HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT,' JOB MARKET IMPROVED (dove)
  
• *FED SEES 2015 GDP GROWTH OF 2.3%-2.7% VS 2.6%-3% DEC. EST. (dove)
  
• *FED WANTS TO BE `REASONABLY CONFIDENT' ON INFLATION FOR LIFTOFF (hawk)

So, despite previous Fed promises, we have seen dismal macro data, no consumption gain from low gas prices, and USD strength headwinds; and yet, as they shift growth expectations in their dot plot, we're supposed to believe that. The bottom line: Fed to Markets: "you're on your own"-ish: undertainty is back. Full redline below...

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2059, EUR 1.0650, 10Y 2.05%, Gold $1152

We're gonna need moar words!!

Treasury market liquidity just fell to its lowest since 2013...

What can strike a balance between the opposing forces operating on the euro-dollar exchange rate? No one can say for sure, but one thing is certain: Whereas the profits from playing transatlantic interest-rate differentials may run to 1% or 2% per year, investors can easily lose that amount in a single day – or even an hour – by buying the wrong currency when the trend turns. As we know from decades of Japanese and Swiss experience, selling a low-interest-rate currency simply to chase higher US yields is often a costly mistake.

Dear Greek readers: the writing is now on the wall, and it is in very clear 48-point, double bold, and underlined font: when the ECB "leaks" that it is modelling a Grexit, something Draghi lied about over and over in 2012 and directly in our face too, take it seriously, because it is time to start planning about what happens on "the day after." And incidentally to all those curious what the fair value of peripheral European bonds is excluding ECB backstops, the ECB has a handy back of the envelope calculation: a 95% loss.

Despite the constant blather of how cheap European stocks are (they are not) and how Draghi's QE will create something positive (priced in?), the last 2 days have seen Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond risk explode higher. The 20%-plus surge in bond spreads is the biggest since the beginning of the EU crisis in 2011 as Grexit fears (and redenonimation risks) continue to spread.

Talk of raising interest rates introduces a new Fed conundrum. Over the last few months, Federal Reserve Board members have maintained a less dovish tone which implies the eventuality of rate hikes despite economic data which has been slowing rapidly.... A case can be made that, excluding 2008, the economy is weaker now than prior to the announcement of the previous QE actions and Operation Twist. Further confounding the Fed stance is inflation, which as measured by CPI is running lower than at any time since 2009. Additionally the strong dollar and global deflationary trends point to lower inflation and possibly deflation in the coming months.

"The debt borne by the oil and gas sector has increased two and a half times over, from roughly $1 trillion in 2006 to around $2.5 trillion in 2014. As the price of oil is a proxy for the value of the underlying assets that underpin that debt, its recent decline may have caused significant financial strains and induced retrenchment by the sector as a whole. If the adjustment takes the form of increased current or future sales of oil, it may amplify the fall in the oil price.

Borrowing in USD was risk-on; buying USD is risk-off. As the real global economy slips into recession, risk-on trades in USD-denominated debt are blowing up and those seeking risk-off liquidity and safe yields are scrambling for USD-denominated assets. Add all this up and we have to conclude that, in terms of demand for USD--you ain't seen nuthin' yet.