Archive - Apr 20, 2015 - Story

Listen to the following 15 second clip of Bob Pisani explaining what the important thing is... and decide which centrally-planned, micro-managed economy's omnipotence he is questioning...

IBM numbers in a nutshell: Revenue dropped by 11.9% to $19.6 billion; Net Income dropped by 2.4% to $2.3 billion...

And yet... GAAP EPS rose by 2.6% to $2.36!

Here's the accounting magic behind this "beat"

"An alternate, more sophisticated approach to explaining why QE may not work to stimulate aggregate consumption is, perhaps, because the demographic mix of the U.S. (and most parts of the developed world) has shifted toward older people. Unlike 30 or 40 years ago, the enormous baby boomer generation, and even retirees, are much wealthier (including human capital) than in the past, and they are wealthier than current generations earlier in their life cycle.  So the wealth effect does not lead to an increase in consumption and, potentially, has the opposite outcome."

- Robert Merton

Just who are all of these newly minted Chinese “investors” whose ranks are now so large that their trades literally broke the software that tracks volume on the Shanghai Exchange today?

"Whenever total federal tax receipts have exceeded 18% of GDP, the result has always been a recession for the U.S. economy."

Following Monsanto lobbyist comments recently that he's "not stupid" enough to drink the weedkiller that he also proclaimed was safe enough that "you can drink a whole quart of it and it won’t hurt you;" Reuters reports that the maker of the world's most widely used herbicide, Roundup, wants an international health organization to retract a report linking the chief ingredient in the weedkiller to cancer. The company said on Tuesday that a report, issued on Friday by the WHO, was biased: "The WHO has something to explain." However, as one scientist noted, "there are a number of independent, published manuscripts that clearly indicate that glyphosate...can promote cancer and tumor growth."

While it is 'possible' that The Fed's net worth could become negative, such a phenomenon would be "temporary and would not create serious problems."

China is looking to succeed where the United States has failed. Beijing — which, as a reminder, claims it will not use its regional infrastructure development initiatives as a tool of foreign policy — is now set to facilitate the construction of nearly $50 billion in power plants, roads, and railways in neighboring Pakistan. The proposal, which will give China access to the Indian Ocean via the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, is part of President Xi Jinping’s ambitious “Silk Road” Economic Belt, and importantly, will likely include financing for the completion of the "Peace Pipeline," which will carry natural gas from Iranian gas fields across Pakistan.

We warned last week that capital controls were inevitable and it apears the first steps have been taken (very quietly):

*GREECE ISSUES DECREE: LOCAL GOVTS OBLIGED TO TRANSFER DEPOSIT RESERVES AT CENTRAL BANK

So, following the pension fund raid, the Greek government is now centralizing all Greek cash citing an “extremely urgent and unforeseen need.". One wonders if this is Krugman's "advice."

The built-up tensions and fragilities are begging for release. The unfortunate consequence of not allowing the process of “creative destruction” to occur in banking and Big Business is that the historic forces behind it will seek expression elsewhere in the realm of politics and governance. The desperate antics of central banks to cover up financial failure can’t help but provoke political upheaval, including war.

"Ultimately, the current QE programs will fail. I think most likely through a large devaluation in the emerging market currencies.  Having dodged and parried so many blows from Central Bank QE programs, the market is seemingly failing to break higher. Breadth is narrowing in the US stock market, and credit spreads widening. Economic data, with the exception of jobs, which is a lagging indicator, indicate the US economy is peaking. To me it looks like the US and China might go into recession at the same time."

Does this behavior look like a market that is pricing-in a Fed rate hike?

As the head of Russian gas giant Gazprom, Alexei Miller, arrives in Athens tomorrow (for talks with Greek PM Tsipras about "current energy issues of interest," which we suspect will include finalizing the "Turkish Stream" pipeline heralded by many as Greece's potential get-out-of-Troika-jail-card), he will face an increasingly anxious European Union. Fresh from its suit against Google, the WSJ reports, the EU's competition regulator plans to file formal antitrust charges against Russia’s state-owned gas company OAO Gazprom on Wednesday. This re-opens a suit from 2012 saying that it suspected the company of abusing its dominant position in those countries’ natural-gas supply. It appears Europe is getting nervous...

Mission Accomplished?