Archive - Apr 2015 - Story

Presented with no comment... ok well one! WTF!?

Claiming to own X quantity of gold is one thing, and reporting how many times the gold has been pledged as collateral is another.

"What is different this time? Central banks are driving all investment decisions, and what this implies is that they are in this trade so  deeply that there is no obvious or practical exit.... This is a dangerous situation. The focus must return to the REAL economy; we cannot trade our way out of past mistakes."

"The downside risk would be to have broad-based outflows if the macro story deteriorates further or the stock exchange collapses, which would create a confidence crisis,” one analyst tells Bloomberg, as capital continues to flow out of China. The country faces accelerating capital outflows, a looming economic downturn, and an epic stock market bubble, and ironically, efforts to combat the latter two problems are very likely to exacerbate the former.

Well, the Nasdaq finally did it. So if you invested in the Nasdaq at the peak of the dotcom bubble, you are just finally breaking even 15 years later.  Unfortunately, the truth is that stocks have not been soaring because the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong.  Just like the last two times, what we are witnessing is an irrational financial bubble.  Sometimes these irrational bubbles can last for a surprisingly long time, but in the end they always burst.  And even now there are signs of economic trouble bubbling to the surface all around us. 

Spot the odd G-7 nations out...

This is the story of an 11-year-old boy who bravely defended his mom’s used of cannabis oil during a anti-drug program at his school...

Think you too could "Sarao" the markets? Step right up and test your 'spoofing' skills...

The evidence is mounting...

USA USA USA #15? Despite aerial bombardment, growing tensions with every neighbor, and the almost ubiquitous daily car-bombs, Israelis are "happier" than Americans according to Bloomberg's world happiness index. Happiness, it appears, is most abundant a long way from the equator with Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, and Canada all topping the list; whereas the unhappiest nations are all in Saharan or sub-Saharan Africa (apart from war-torn Syria and Afghanistan).

Operating and reported earnings have turned sharply lower over recent quarters which has historically been associated with major market peaks. As shown below, it is also important to notice that revenue has tended to lag these downturns in earnings previously. This is because the measures used to substantially boost profitability from each dollar of revenue generated through accounting gimmickry, share repurchases, and cost cutting are finite in nature. When the effect of those manipulations fade, so does the inflated profitability generated from each dollar of revenue. This will be something worth watching closely over the next few quarters particular as the commentary of a "continued secular bull market" continues to hit the headlines.

Regular readers will be familiar with Christian Bittar, the former Deutsche Bank rates trader whose various exploits and adventures we began to chronicle more than two years ago. Now, thanks to the bank's settlement with the Justice Department, we know exactly what Bittar said on his way to manipulating the world's benchmark rates.

Judging by the action today, all that mattered today was 2117.39 - that is the S&P 500's previous closing record high from March 2nd. One glimpse at the charts below and the VIX-slamming is evident (especially at the close) as each time it came close to losing the record high, a miraculous deep-pocketd volatility-seller stepped in...

Warning, some high school students were injured in the making of this Nasdaq Trader analogy...