Archive - Apr 2015 - Story

While Germany has pre-emptively, and somewhat defensively, come out proclaiming Russian aid to Greece as 'no big deal' - a "routine event" - we suspect the signal that it would send would not be entirely great for the EU (and Obama's) 'Russia is evil' meme. Nonetheless, as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras meets Russian President Vladimir Putin today - just one day before The IMF loan repoayment is due, topics for discussion vary from lifting sanctions (bilaterally) or bankrolling a bailout to gas discount from Gazprom. Here's a summary...

• Shell Will Buy BG Group for $70 Billion in Cash and Shares (BBG)
• IMF warns of long period of lower growth (FT)
• Wall Street sanguine as it heads into worst earnings season in six years (Reuters)
• Switzerland First With 10-Year Bond at Negative Yield (WSJ)
• U.S. Dot-Com Bubble Was Nothing Compared to Today’s China Prices (BBG)
• Rahm Emanuel Re-Elected as Mayor of Fiscally Ravaged Chicago (BBG)
• Oil falls on U.S. stock build, record Saudi output (Reuters)
• White South Carolina policeman charged with murdering black man (Reuters)
• German Factory Orders Drop for Second Month (BBG)
• A third of Republicans support Iran nuclear deal (Reuters)

While US equity futures are largely unchanged, if only ahead of the now daily pre-open market-wide ramp, things in Asia have continued on their bubbly flurry, where China's Shanghai Composite briefly rose above 4000 for the first time since 2008, but it was the surge in the Hong Kong stock market that showed the Chinese bubble is finally spilling over, in the form of a blistering rally on the Hang Seng which rose nearly 4% on immense volume which at 250 billion Hong Kong dollars ($32 billion) was three times the average daily volume over the past year and nearly 20% more than the previous record volume day in October 2007, at the height of the pre-financial crisis bubble.

Bad news is even better news in Europe. "Core" Germany saw its powerhouse economy suffer the biggest drop in Factory Orders since June (-1.3% YoY) missing expectations for the 2nd month in a row - the first consecutive drop since may 2013 (despite German business confidence rising for the 5th month in a row) as apparently devaluing the EU's currency is not encouraging business. The result... DAX futures surging, bond yields tumbling and Spanish bond yields to 6 months are now negative...

Because nothing says "liquid and efficient" market like yet another broken market. Just as we saw yesterday afternoon as US equities collapsed into the close, Euronext has broken in the pre-open European markets... and sure enough, stock futures surge...

Sorry... but it's your fault you're offended all the time.

Yesterday we reported that in what may have been an attempt to stun the world, if not so much Germany, with the law of large numbers, Greece calculated that Germany owes it a whopping €278 billion in World War II reparations, or about a third of what Germany reported was its GDP in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for Greece, Germany does not appear to be rushing to wire the funds. As Reuters reported earlier today, Germany's economy minister had one word for the Greek demand: "stupid."

"The politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have freedom of choice. You don’t. . . . You have owners." - George Carlin, The American Dream

According to a new study from Princeton University, American democracy no longer exists. Using data from over 1,800 policy initiatives from 1981 to 2002, researchers Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page concluded that rich, well-connected individuals on the political scene now steer the direction of the country, regardless of – or even against – the will of the majority of voters. America’s political system has transformed from a democracy into an oligarchy, where power is wielded by wealthy elites.

The only one tilting at windmills now is Washington, which is stuck between persisting on the idea that this institution is somehow lacking when it comes to Western underwriting “standards” and executing a completely humiliating mea culpa which isn’t really an option given The White House’s steadfast refusal to support the Chinese venture.

Previously, Elliott Management's Paul Singer has explained that he believes "there is one risk that stands way above the rest in terms of the scope of potential damage adjusted for the likelihood of occurrence" - an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Today we dig deeper into that risk... Why are we writing about EMP? Because in any analysis of societal risk, EMP stands all by itself.

The present oil price collapse is because of over-production of expensive tight oil. The collapse occurred because of the inability of the world market to support the cost of the new expensive oil supply from shale, oil sands and deep water. The problem is structural and systemic and firmly rooted in the irresponsible funding of under-performing U.S. tight oil companies since at least 2010. The first step to price recovery is the severing of capital supply to companies that could not fund their operations from cash flow when oil prices were more than $90 per barrel. If this does not happen, we could be in for a long period of low oil prices.

"We hope that public figures in other countries can respect China's judicial sovereignty and independence," was the abrupt response from Beijing, clearly aimed at Hillary Clinton, after the yet-to-announce-her-run-for-president-ness, denounced as "inexcusable" the detention of five women activists. On suspicion of "picking quarrels and provoking trouble", the five women face a jail sentence of up to five years, and so Clinton, using direct social media channels, tweeted, "The detention of women's activists in China must end. This is inexcusable". China's Foreign Ministry said the matter was an internal affair.

A few months ago, Sony used a ridiculous "hacking" publicity stunt to generate some $40 million more in revenues for what would otherwise have been the latest Seth Rogen "comic" flop, in which the film agency blamed North Korea - which has about ten ultramodern 80386 computers in the entire country - for hacking its firewall, a hack which was subsequently revealed to be the result of disgruntled former employee. Fast forward to today, when moments ago CNN reported that Russian hackers which according to left "tell-tale codes and other markers that they believe point to hackers working for the Russian government", had penetrated the White House computer system.