Archive - Apr 2015 - Story

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 has been downgraded once again... to 0.0 percent on April 1, down from 2.3 percent on Feb 13th.

The scenes seen on the video were chaotic and very wobbly, said Bild, adding, screams and shouts of "My God" in various languages could be heard, indicating the passengers knew what was happening.

Three weeks ago, when Hillary Clinton was scrambling to come up with a credible lie to explain why she was using a personal server for email distribution - one that was not US government property and thus exempt from official FOIA requests - she said during a press conference at the United Nations that the reason was simple: it was simply a matter of "convenience" of carrying just one device."when I got to work as secretary of State, I opted for convenience to use my personal email account, which was allowed by the State Department, because I thought it would be easier to carry just one device for my work and for my personal emails instead of two." As it turns out she lied. Again.

Is it possible that capitalism’s underlying focus on profits, and the necessity for endless purchases of goods and services, has a practical limit?

Despite the second (or third) dead cat bounce of the day in US equities (as machines pin the S&P to VWAP), US Treasury yields are collapsing-er to the lows of the day. While 30Y and 10Y yields are now down 10bps or so from earlier highs, the move in 2Y is most notable as it has broken below the 200-day moving average for the first time in 2 months... suggesting that no matter how assuredly The Fed says it will raise rates, the market sees Yellen cutting 'em back promptly.

Crude oil prices continue to push higher. Following the earlier drop in US crude production this week and PEMEX oil rig fire, we now have more substantive headlines from Switzerland:

*IRAN TAKES PAUSE IN TALKS, NO DOCUMENT SEEN TODAY: TASS CITES UNIDENTIFIED EUROPEAN DIPLOMAT

Of course, one wonders who really wants a deal now... with over-supply already a problem, any sanctions-lifting would boomerang back to US Shale firms and further destabilize the illusion of recovery in America.

"If you’re incompetent, you can’t know you’re incompetent. [...] the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."

Following last night's pump'n'dump after API inventories exceeded expectations (5.2mm vs 4.2mm exp.), WTI crude prices have dropped to almost a $46 handle and recovered as chatter of "no deal" from Switzerland picks up. DOE reports a 4.766mm barrel build, greater than expected, for the 12th week in a row - the longest streak since records began in 1982. Crude prices are however surging as production dropped wekk-over-week for only the 2nd time this year...

A combination of Greek default fears rising (safety reach) and considerably weaker than expected data (moar easing) has sparked a $20 surge in gold prices this morning, back above $1200...

US Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, printing 55.7 up from 55.3 prior to its highest since Oct 2014, once again flying in the face of the collapse in US hard-data-base macro. More in line with the underlying reality, Feb Construction Spending dropped for the 3rd month of the last 4 and March ISM Manufacturing tumbled to 51.5, missing expectations of 52.5, to its lowest since May 2013. Under the covers, it is even uglier with the lowest New Orders since Jan 2014 as US Manufacturing data has missed 5 of the last 7 months and dropped for 5 months in a row - which hasn't happened since 2008.

Update: GREECE GOVT DENIES PLAN TO DELAY APRIL 9 IMF PAYMENT: REUTERS

For now the algos can't decide if Greece is joking about making the payment or joking about not making the payment.

"The country seems to be on the verge of total collapse," the UN says, citing civilian deaths and children in "desperate need." Meanwhile, Saudi and Houthi troops are engaged in "heavy" border clashes as the coalition continues its bombing raids.

It's business as usual in Washington. President Obama has just signed another Executive Order declaring a National Emergency to deal with cyber threats:

*OBAMA ORDER CREATES NEW AUTHORITY TO RESPOND TO CYBER THREATS TO BE USED IN 'TARGETED MANNER'
*OBAMA ORDER ALLOWS SANCTIONS FOR CYBER THREATS

This new authority, yet another layer of government oversight, we are sure is for your own protection and in Obama's words will "augment work to fight cyber threats." All your internet is belong to us...