Archive - May 20, 2015 - Story

One Barclays FX trader, when he became the main Euro trader for Barclays in 2011, was desperate to be invited to join the Cartel because of the trading advantages from sharing information with the other main traders of the Euro.After extensive discussion of whether or not this trader “would add value” to the Cartel, he was invited to join for a “1 month trial,” but was advised “mess this up and sleep with one eye open at night.”

No lesser establishment economist than Martin Feldstein - Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research - has some warning words of wisdom for The Fed today: "...the Fed’s unconventional monetary policies have also created dangerous risks to the financial sector and the economy as a whole." When even The Ivory Tower is losing faith, you know The Fed is in trouble...

To put Caterpillar's ongoing second great depression in context, during the Great Financial Crisis, CAT suffered "only" 19 months of consecutive retail sales declines. As of April 2015, this number is now 29, and there is no hope in sight of seeing an annual rebounce any time soon.

Following last night's 5.2 million barrel inventory draw reported by API, crude prices surged once again (bouncing off levels before the first inventory draw at the end of April). Consensus appears confused since Bloomberg median estimates were for a 1.75mm draw while survey respondents expected a 3.82 million barrel draw this morning. DOE data showed a disappointly lower than API, 2.67 million barrel draw - which initially sent crude prices tumbling... machines bid them back, and now they are plunging again. Production dropped 1.2% overall - its biggest weekly drop since July 2014.

Li Hejun began the day as either China’s second-richest man according to Forbes, or richest, according to the Hurun Report and Le Figaro, with a fortune worth more than $30 billion. By 11am, his net worth was amazingly cut by half, and he was almost $14 billion "poorer" as shares in Li’s flagship Hanergy Thin Film plunged by 47% in Hong Kong before trading was suspended - due to Li's absence at the company's annual meeting.

As the live webcast from US AG Loretta Lynch indicates, moments ago the DOJ announced five global banks including Citi, J.P. Morgan, Barclays, RBS would plead guilty to criminal charges to conspiring to manipulate FX Prices, and would pay some $5.6 billion in combined penalties to resolve a long running U.S. investigation into whether traders at the banks colluded to move foreign currency rates in directions to benefit their own positions.

It appears investors in ETSY just barely missed out on its 30 day IPO-back guarantee...

When there is so much bullshit floating around that you forget what you wrote just a month ago, and when the central planners can't even agree on what lie to agree to use, then the status quo truly be in jeopardy.

Bond yields are leaking higher, The USDollar is flat (but noisy), but with no macro data to spark a momo run, US equities have tumbled out of the gate... especially Dow Transports. Dow & S&P are back to unchanged on the week...

That the Fed and other central banks have unleashed the speculative furies is an unassailable and baleful reality. What is going on here plain and simple is a one-sided game of chicken. The robo-traders and hedge fund buccaneers on Wall Street press the market higher on virtually no volume or conviction whenever macro-economic weakness presents itself, virtually daring the Fed to maintain is ultra-accommodative stance still longer. The casino gamblers will keep chop, chop choppin’ higher until they finally lose confidence that the Eccles building is heaven’s door to further riches. Then the machines will sell, sell, sell. There will be no credible Fed speakers to stop them.

"A senior government official says that among the proposals discussed with the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund is the imposition of a levy on bank transactions, whose exact rate will depend on the exemptions that would apply. The aim is to collect 300-600 million euros on a yearly basis," Kathimerini reports. Meanwhile, parliamentary speaker Nikos Filis has a message for the IMF.

According to Goldman, "low gas prices should have boosted Q1 consumption growth by 0.5-1pp, reinforcing the Q1 disappointment. However, the models also imply that only one-fourth to one-half of the eventual consumption impact should have been felt by Q1, suggesting plenty of remaining upside in coming quarters." Here is the one problem with that assumption...

UBS will pay $545 million, plead guilty to one count of wire fraud, and go on DoJ "probation" for three years for its role in forex manipulation. The market's assessment of how things turned out for the bank: "It couldn't have been better."

• Clinton aides sometimes blocked release of documents requested under public-records law (WSJ)
• House Benghazi panel subpoenas former Clinton White House aide (Reuters)
• Cash Crunch, for Many, Is a Monthly Woe (WSJ)
• Doubts over Greece add to euro's ECB-driven frailty (Reuters)
• For Many American States, It's Like the Recession Never Ended (BBG)
• Japan debt plan needs BOJ to keep rates low for years (Reuters)
• Euro Continues to Fall; European Bonds, Stocks Broadly Steady (WSJ)
• Los Angeles gives preliminary approval to $15 minimum wage (Reuters)

The only remarkable macroeconomic news overnight was out of Japan where we got the Q1 GDP print of 2.4% coming in well above consensus of 1.6%, and higher than the 1.1% in Q4. Did it not snow in Japan this winter? Does Japan already used double, and maybe triple, "seasonally-adjusted" data? We don't know, but we do know that both Japan and Europe have grown far faster than the US in the first quarter.