Archive - May 2015 - Story

When US Macro data started to crumble after QE3 ended last year, and with it US equities, The Fed unleashed Jim Bullard to suggest that QE4 was possible if things deteriorated... and in that moment, everything broke. The last few months have seen expectations of a European recovery dashed as macro data has disappointed greatly - now weaker on the year. So what is Draghi to do? Easy - Fed playbook: unleash Benoit Coeure to suggest moar QE sooner and maintain the illusion of future success in stock prices (even as data collapses)...

• A tendency to examine too few alternatives; A lack of critical assessment of each other’s ideas;
• A high degree of selectivity in information gathering; A lack of contingency plans;
• Poor decisions are often rationalised; The group has an illusion of invulnerability and shared morality;
• True feelings and beliefs are suppressed; An illusion of unanimity is maintained;
• Mind guards (essentially information sentinels) may be appointed to protect the group from negative information.

For the last 9 days in a row, no matter what is occurring in the markets, US Treasuries have begun to sell-off at 1330ET... Some have suggested this points to funding issues being a driver of recent weakness, with the USD up by the most in 2 days since oct 2011, we shall see if the need to sell down USTs is there for the 10th day in a row...

The largest problem with the data sets below is that they are all subject to large historical revisions. This is why the NBER is ALWAYS well after the fact in pronouncing the start and end of recessions in the U.S. economy. Given the ongoing interventions from the Federal Reserve and the current administration, it is likely that many of the statistics, and seasonal adjustment metrics, have been skewed in recent years. In the quarters ahead it is likely that we could see rather sharp adjustments to historical data which may suggest the economy has been far weaker than headline statistics have suggested.

The good news: A federal judge on Tuesday ordered the U.S. State Department to produce a schedule for the release of emails that Hillary Clinton sent and received while she was secretary of state, a legal move that could complicate her presidential campaign.

The other news: The State Department is proposing a deadline of January 2016 to complete its review...

You just can't make this up!

It could go up, or it could go down.

It’s no secret that the protracted negotiations between Athens and its creditors are taking a toll on the Greek economy in general, on the Greek banking sector more specifically, and on Greek citizens most tragically. Now, thanks to a new report from the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Enterprises, we can quantify the daily economic toll of failed negotiations.

Earlier today, housing starts shocked to the upside when they printed at 1.135MM, smashing estimates of 1.015MM, and representing the single biggest monthly jump since 1991. The entire surge was due to one single number.

Filed under WTF - 500.com Limited (WBAI) - the Chinese online sports lottery firm - announced today that the Chinese Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Civil Affairs, demands they temporarily suspend accepting online purchase orders for lottery products. This means 500.com is not cuirrently generating any revenue at all. The CEO and another Director of the firm resigned. The result... a 25% surge in the stock price!!!

UPDATE: Greek Default Would Mean Poverty Trap, Dijsselbloem Tells VN

The Humanitarian Crisis Relief program was one of the top priorities of the SYRIZA-Independent Greeks coalition government and it was pushed forwards despite the Troika-Institutions objections. After the EU leaders Summit end of March, EU Commission President Jean Claude Juncker had announced to release 2 billion euro to tackle the Greek humanitarian crisis. While it is not clear if Juncker sent the money or not, As KeepTalkingGreece reports, 212,897 Greeks have so far submitted requests to be part of the Humanitarian Crisis Relief Program. 1st world or 3rd world?

The surge in the USDollar and "good" housing data has created carnage in commodities. Silver, crude, copper, and gold are all getting hammered this morning as the S&P is unchanged as moar Q€ was trumped by hawkish "good" data...

Things are getting more surreal by the moment. First the ECB leaks material, market moving information to hedge funds 12 hours before disclosing it to the entire world, and now the central bank that has taken central planning to the next level, is revealing its displeasure with how the quote unquote "market" has responded to the Euro. Via BBG:

• PRAET: SOME ANALYST FORECASTS ON THE EURO'S DEPRECIATION HAD GONE BEYOND WHAT ECB EXPECTED: WSJ

Oddly no comment if the ECB's stealthy selling of Bunds to open up capacity for 15 more months of purchases also moved the massively illqiuid market too far in the opposite direction.

Shortly after 6pm London time yesterday, The ECB's Benoit Coeure told a non-public audience of hedge funds in London that "the central bank would moderately front-load its purchases in its quantitative easing program because of the seasonal lack of market liquidity in the summer." The reaction was a 50 pips drop in EURUSD... but this was inside information was not released to the trading public until around 8am London time - and resulted in a 150 pip plunge. In other words, a select private group of head funds in London were leaked ECB front-loading news 14 hours before The ECB deemed it 'correct' to publicly release the comments... due to what The ECB calls "an internal procedure error."