Archive - Jun 28, 2015 - Story

We're gonna need a bigger rate cut...

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE HEADS FOR BIGGEST 3-DAY DROP SINCE 1996
CHINA CSI 500 STOCK-INDEX FUTURES FALL BY MAXIMUM 10% LIMIT

"It's time to wake up," because, the fate of the world is in the hands of illiterate Chinese farmers and Greek grannies.

Just a few hours ago Greek PM Tsipras addressed his nation imploring then to "remain calm" and reassuring them that their "deposits were safe." It appears the Greeks did not believe him. Many were wondering where the Greek bank lines were for the past several months. Turns out the local depositors were merely waiting until just after the last minute to withdraw their funds... horde gas... and stack food. Greece, it appears is Venezuela - the new socialist paradise.

Have you picked up on the new trope du jour? We are all encouraged to bask in our innocence as we lament the advent of a new Cold War. The thought has been in the wind for more than a year, of course, at least among some of us. But we witness a significant turn, and I hope this same some of us are paying attention. As of this week, leaders who know nothing about leading, thinkers who do not think and opinion-shaping poseurs such as Tom Friedman are confident enough in their case to sally forth with it: The Cold War returns, the Russians have restarted it and we must do the right thing - the right thing being to bring NATO troops and materiel up to Russia’s borders, pandering to the paranoia of the former Soviet satellites as if they alone have access to some truth not available to the rest of us.

As we noted last night, for a whole lot of time nothing at all can happen under the guise of "containment"... and then everything happens all at once. Because not even two full days after Greece activated the "Grexit" emergency protocol, leading to capital controls, and a frozen banking system and stock market, moments ago the NYT reported that the default wave has jumped the Atlantic and has hit Puerto Rico whose governor Alejandro García Padilla, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts, an admission that will probably have wide-reaching financial repercussions.

Quite a week...

Despite all the 'smartest men in the room' proclaiming that Greece doesn't matter, and Greek risks are "contained", Japanese stocks are tumbling led by bank stocks. Topix Banks Index has plunged the most since Feb 2014 (and 2nd most since the Taper Tantrum in 2013).

It’s happening. As expected, dynastic politics is prevailing in campaign 2016. After a tease about as long as Hillary’s, Jeb Bush (aka Jeb!) officially announced his presidential bid last week. Ultimately, the two of them will fight it out for the White House, while the nation’s wealthiest influencers will back their ludicrously expensive gambit. And here’s a hint: don’t bet on Jeb not to make it through the Republican gauntlet of 12 candidates (so far). After all, the really big money’s behind him.

With Greece disintegrating before our very eyes, here are some recent blasts from the recent and not so recent past, showing just how clueless some of the most and least respected, strategists, bureucrats, drama majors, and former Goldman employees have been when it comes to Greece.

The only answer to the War on Drugs is the same as that to the equally stupid and destructive War on Demon Rum fought during the ’20s - a repeal of prohibition. The question is really whether you have a right to control your own body and what you ingest. There’s little question that caffeine, cocaine, nicotine, heroin, alcohol, marijuana, sugar, and a thousand other things aren’t good for you, at least not in quantity. But we can’t see how that’s anybody’s business but your own. Once it becomes a matter of state concern, then everything becomes an equally legitimate subject of state attention. Which is pretty much where we are today - well on the way to a police state.

Ideas Have Consequences... In Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, in Great Britain, in Japan, and in the United States, there was a shift of opinion away from the free market in favor of government economic planning. The supreme mark of this transformation was the acceptance of John Maynard Keynes' unreadable book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, which was published in 1936. A new generation of younger economists adopted this book and its outlook, which prevails today. The fascist economic idea of an alliance between government and business became almost universally accepted.

"As pension funds move into riskier investments in search of higher returns to fulfil their pension promises, they may be seriously compromising their solvency situation in the event of a negative shock."

"Sometimes, when the government tells you to do something, it’s best to do the opposite." When do you need a stash of cash? When the feds try to outlaw it. Hold some dollars. And some gold. But,what good will cash be after it is declared illegal, we hear you ask? We’re not sure. Maybe we’ve spent too much time in Argentina, where people have more supple and more subtle attitudes to monetary regulations. Trading pesos for dollars, on the black market, is illegal. Do it and they take you for a scofflaw. Don’t do it and they take you for a fool.

"The positive wealth effect of the equity market on consumption or aggregate demand is limited in China, but an equity market collapse would hurt millions of mid-class households and pose great danger to the economy and social stability."

Buy-The-Dipping, "Greece doesn't matter", Escape-velocity-forecasting, QE-front-running, Central-Bank-believing asset gatherers everywhere must be salivating at this 'healthy correction' opportunity...

With intra-Europe relations hitting a new all-time low; and, having already been busted spying on Merkel, Obama got caught with his hand in Hollande's cookie jar this week, the following exultation from one of Germany's top politicians will hardly help Washington-Brussells relations. As Russia Insider notes, Oskar Lafontaine is a major force in German politics so it caught people’s attention when he excoriated Ash Carter and Victoria Nuland on his Facebook page yesterday... "Nuland says 'F*ck the EU'. We need need an EU foreign policy that stops warmongering US imperialism... F*ck US imperialism!" When he comes out swinging this way, you know something is changing.