Archive - Jun 2015 - Story

Bond yields are surging higher (in UST and Bunds) and stocks fading as Draghi offered a mere glimpse at more pre-commitments but warned:

*DRAGHI: MARKETS MUST GET USED TO PERIODS OF HIGHER VOLATILITY

10Y Bunds just hit 80bps, up another 9 bps today for a 2-day spike of a stunning 35bps!

The Ruble just hit 54/USD - its weakest since early April - as IFX reports a "large-scale" rebel offensive in eastern Ukraine involving 10 tanks and around 1000 troops. Ukraine's military has redeployed troops to halt this rebel offensive and has informed its international partners on the re-deployment which leaves The Minsk Accord hanging by a thread.

Despite all the reassurances by various leaders that any Grexit or Greek bankruptcy would be 'contained', Sigmar Gabriel - vice-chancellor and economic minister of Germany's SPD party - unleashed some uncomfortable truthiness yesterday. With Greek stocks up almost 5% today as hope springs eternal, Gabriel warned of nothing less than “gigantic consequences” for Europe in case of a Greek bankruptcy.

With last month’s failed (so far) breakout in the U.S. equity market, stocks are relegated once again to range-bound status. Essentially the market has gone nowhere since the beginning of the year and, by some measures, 2015 has been the quietest start to a year in over a century. One characteristic of the stagnant action has been a lack of out-sized daily moves in the market, up or down. This is the index’s longest streak without a 2% day since the one that ended on June 1, 2012 at…111 days.

After March's six-year high disastrous kitchen-sink trade deficit revised down to -$51.4 billion, April saw a bounce back to just $40.9 billion deficit (considerably lower deficit than the $44 billion expectation). The imporvment was driven by a big shift in imports - dropping 3.3% (after a 6.5% jump in March) as exports rose just 1% (which is still the most in 2015).

After leaving policy unchanged, Mario Draghi takes questions on PSPP effects, bond market volatility, Greece, inflation, and QE flexibility.  

• ECB CUTS ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2017 TO 2% VS 2.1%
• DRAGHI: ECB KEEPS INFLATION FORECASTS UNCHANGED FOR 2016, 2017

Having fallen for 5 straight months (and missed expectations for the last 4), much to the 'recovery meme' chagrin of Mark Zandi and his fellow extrapolators, May's 201k print (against expectations of 200k) was a modest bounce that will be seen as heralding the post-weather recovery. At 201k, ADP job change remains below every month of 2014 aside from January. Led by small business - which gained 122k of the 201k jobs, we note that large firms 500-999 employees actually saw jobs being shed. Furthermore, Service-providing jobs dominated with 192 of 201k jobs coming from that segment of the economy and just 9k growth in goods producing with manufacturing dropping 5k. Zandi's helpful remarks provide the narrative, "I think the economy is doing much better than the data shows and when it is all revised will show strong growth." Brilliant.

At the post-ECB presser, Mario Draghi will likely discuss volatility in euro bond markets, inflation expectations, Greece, ECB flexibility on PSPP implementation, and the economic outlook for the eurozone. Expect security to be tighter at today's event.

"Greece will not make a June 5 repayment to the International Monetary Fund if there is no prospect of an aid-for-reforms deal with its international creditors soon," Reuters reports. PM Alexis Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Wednesday evening, but no deal is expected today.

While there will be far more focus on Mario Draghi's press conference in 45 minutes, where there is no expectation of another glitter bomb this time due to much more stringent press screening measures, the ECB just announced that, as expected, it is keeping it three key rates unchanged.

• Obama signs bill reforming surveillance program (Reuters)
• Tsipras to meet Juncker in Brussels for talks on agreement (AFP)
• Spot the irony: OECD cuts global growth forecast, says recovery taking hold (Reuters)
• The Secret Money Behind Vladimir Putin's War Machine (BBG)
• Companies' Borrowing Spree Darkens Stock Market Future (BBG)
• How OPEC Hurt Big Oil (WSJ)
• What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day? (BBG)
• Draghi’s Europe Looks Healthiest for Years Despite Greece (BBG)
• Bund yields inch higher, euro holds ahead of ECB (Reuters)

With the Greek IMF payment just 48 hours away, and Europe having submitted its best and final offer to Greece in a battle of "deal proposals", today Greek PM Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Juncker to discuss the recently submitted reform proposals by the Greek premier. However, a Greek government spokesman says that Greek PM Tsipras will not meet Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem despite several reports suggesting that they would do so later today. Last night it was reported that the EU, ECB, IMF agreed on terms for a cash-for-reform plan to be presented to Greece. However, a senior EU official has said that they are concerned that the stringent measures of the proposal could be met with rejection by Greece.

If one sentence sums up the farce that the hyper-speculative ponzifest that is the 500% club in China it is "Hanergy Group was basically using the listed company as a means to produce collateral in the form of shares that it could then pledge to secure financing." While the stock has been cut in half, lenders remain mired in opacity as they try to figure out, as Bloomberg reports, which of Chinese billionaire Li Hejun's many creditors risk losing every yuan they put into his company? Shenzhen and CHINEXT indices are lower out of the gate today after a 14% and 18% surge in the last 2 days as a group of 11 lenders (ranging from large banks to small asset managers) ask for a meeting to discuss various loans with various Hanergy entities... and whatever they find in Hanergy is bound to have been repeated manifold across China's manic markets.

The troika has rejected Alexis Tsipras' "realistic" draft agreement and have crafted what amounts to a take-it-or-leave-it deal which will be presented to the Greek PM on Wednesday, Reuters reports.

Dear American Consumer,

This is The Wall Street Journal. We’re writing to ask if something is bothering you. The sun shined in April and you didn’t spend much money. You have been saving more too. You socked away 5.6% of your income in April after taxes, even more than in March. This saving is not like you. What’s up?...  The Federal Reserve is counting on you too. Fed officials want to start raising the cost of your borrowing because they worry they’ve been giving you a free ride for too long with zero interest rates. We listen to Fed officials all of the time here at The Wall Street Journal, and they just can’t figure you out.