Archive - Jul 27, 2015 - Story

After pledging a whopping 10% of China's GDP, or just about $1 trillion, to its various (at last check over 40) discrete measures to prop up its collapsing market, among which such threats as arresting shorters of stock and "malicious sellers", China has finally reverted to what the communist regime does best to preserve "order" - implement witch hunts in which the population rats out any criminals who dare to go against the protocols of the communist party. In this case, the targets are "malicious sellers" with the regulator adding that those found guilty of shorting will be "dealt with severely."

When we first exposed the shockingly dire lack of breadth in US equity markets, it was shrugged off by the mainstream media as yet another 'worry' in the wall to climb. It seems, however, that facts inevitably force their way to the surface and so both Bloomberg (more than 100% of this year’s increase in the S&P 500 Index is attributable to two sectors, health-care and retail. That’s the tightest clustering for an advancing year since at least 2000) and The Wall Street Journal (Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt Disney Co. account for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization gains in the S&P 500) have been forced to expose the ugly truth about US equities... it is not a stock market - it's a market of 6 tail-chasing momentum stocks.

Over the last five-plus years in regard to today’s financial markets, the most revered memes that are recited in unison whether it’s in the form of a silent prayer or, it’s done in a near backwoods revival fashion from the televised financial shows “pulpit” in a “Can I get an …. !!!” stylized homily are: “It’s different this time!” followed with “The Fed’s got you’re back.” However, what they mean today may find those that put all their “faith” into such dogma finding that faith severely tested. For as of today July, 26, 2015 It truly is – different this time. And what else is different is: the Fed. may indeed have one’s back. Only problem this time is – that back may no longer be “yours.”

Overnight, the Telegraph's Ambrose-Pritchard reported that "Mr Varoufakis told the Telegraph that the quotes were accurate but some reports in the Greek press had been twisted, making it look as if he had been plotting a return to the drachma from the start.  "The context of all this is that they want to present me as a rogue finance minister, and have me indicted for treason. It is all part of an attempt to annul the first five months of this government and put it in the dustbin of history," he said. It remains to be seen if treason charges are forthcoming but Varoufakis isn't wasting time, and after giving unofficial on the record comments to the Telegraph, moments ago he issued the following public statement on his blog.

Everything... EVERYTHING... rests on one ephemeral thing – the market’s confidence in the power of Central Banks to ensure a good outcome no matter what. Anybody paying attention to the lesson should not just be thinking about what might happen when that fragile confidence evaporates, but taking steps to ensure they don’t get caught out when it does. The problem comes in leaving such precautions a day too long... Ask anybody who was considering selling their Chinese equities last Friday but didn’t...

Update: CHINA TO CONTINUE STABILIZING MARKET, SENTIMENT, PREVENT RISKS, CSRC SAYS

As Beijing pledges to remain supportive amid a harrowing decline in Chinese stocks, China may find itself with no exit strategy for its plunge protection program. As BofAML notes, "An 'indefinite' holding period is certainly possible – it’s how the government had dealt with the last round of bad debts in the banking system, i.e., by shifting them to bad banks and never crystalizing the losses. But even under such a scenario, there may be unintended consequences."

After bouncing dramatically in June (the biggest surprise beat in over 3 years) - on the back of 'hope' surgiung to 6-month highs - July data continued to improve marginally but missed expectations -4.6 vs -3.5 exp). On the bright side New Orders inched into positive territory (although inventories are surging) but prices received tumbled, wages dropped, and employment fell (as hours worked rose). The biggest driver, once again, of the headline rise was 'hope' as the outlook rose to 18.8 - the highest since August.

The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are very close to joining the Dow Industrials and Transports in negative territory for the year. The S&P 500, which has fallen 5 straight days for the first time since January, is now back below its 200DMA, having swung from euphoric "Greece is fixed" exuberant record highs in just a week of rising volume. The Dow is the furthest below its 200DMA since October's Jim Bullard-rescued dump. Treasury yields are plunging.

There is now a new symbol for Greece's perpetual debt servitude...

Last week was a complete dead zone for US macro, however with the peak of Q2 earnings season there was more than enough commotion for everyone. This week US macro starts to pick up again, with Durable Goods on Monday, followed by Case Shiller, Q2 GDP, the Chicago PMI, various consumer confidence indices, and of course, the July FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

What authorities have created is a facsimile of a market. It looks like a market on the surface, but only gamblers and fools risk capital in markets based on false information.

Durable Goods new orders has now fallen 5 months in a row (after revisions) flashing a orangey/red recession warning. After 2 weak months, Durable Goods bounced more than expected in June (+3.4% vs +3.2% exp) - though non-seasonally-adjusted dropped 3.1% MoM. There was an  unexpected drop in Capital Goods Shipments non-defense Ex-Air which fell 0.1% (against expectations of a 0.6% rise), but mosty worrying is that Core CapEx collapsed 6.6% YoY - the second biggest decline since Lehman.

On the heels of a veritable bloodbath in Chinese equities overnight which saw the SHCOMP slide a harrowing 8.5%, the entire world is now beginning to take a hard look at the notion that dramatic bouts of selling pressure are aggravated and perhaps triggered by an unwind in the multiple backdoor margin lending channels that allowed investors to skirt official restrictions on leverage and helped to drive the market’s world-beating rally. Here is the complete guide to China's CNY4 trillion shadow margin edifice.