Archive - Jul 2015 - Story

As commodities carnage and credit cracks, talking heads remain intentionally ignorant in there sheep-like mantra to buy and hold stocks no matter what. Ever hopeful that 'growth' and the 'future' will fix any and all over-valuations, even with the current record low number of stocks trading 'cheap', they continues to ignore the facts. As Professor Bruce Greenwald recently told Goldman Sachs, "if a cyclical is trading expensively, it doesn't really matter how fast it is growing because historically growth hasn’t created value for cyclicals. Absent growth, value cyclicals don’t look like good investments."

Nowhere is this new "glamour" bubble more visible than in the divergence between these "sexy" names built up on nothing but hype, or as David Einhorn would call them "story" stocks, and good old "resource" companies: those engaging in such "old economy" activities as energy and materials.

We are seeing a kind of flight forward by investors – promises of future returns that may or may not eventuate continue to be highly rewarded – no price seems too high. This is actually a fairly typical bubble phenomenon. It is impossible to say for how long it will continue and how far it will go, but it is possible to say how it will end: in tears, especially for Johnny-come-lately investors.

Well that escalated quickly...

Despite exuberant existing home sales, new home sales crosses back below the 500k Maginot Line to 482k SAAR - the lowest since Nov 2014. Previous data was revised notably lower as June data missed expectations by the most in a year. The West region saw new home sales collapse 17%. Perhaps the slide in single-family home starts means something after all?

Despite a very marginal improvement (from 53.6 to 53.8), Markit US Manufacturing PMI remains stubbornly stuck at 19-month lows, unable to bounce from the weathewr-strewn, port-strike-ridden weakness of Q1. As Markit notes, "a modest upturn in the headline manufacturing PMI belies some more worrying undercurrents which point to potential weakness in coming months," and the slump in unemployment index suggests things are not well at all...

While Amazon is up 17%, the Nasdaq party is being spoiled by the 17% collapse in Biogen following its aggressive guidance cut. As we noted previously, Biogen is the 4th most profitable biotech company and this 'scare' is weighing heavy on Janet Yellen's favorite short industry as the entire Biotech index is sliding.

"The letter has been sent." Greece formally invites the troika back to Athens sparking anger, resentment among a conquered people.

Despite the glad-handing over Amazon's results, the rest of the world appears less than impressed with the state of the status quo. Bond yields continue to plummet with 30Y yields at 2.95% - its lowest since the start of June. Gold saw a double-flash-crash overnight but is bouncing back for now - back above the key $1080 level. The Dow and S&P have given up gains and are back in the red and even Nasdaq is fading fast as Biogen and Amazon battle it out to affect the index...

As President Obama completes the re-fueling ahead of the second leg aboard Air Force One on his way to Kenya to visit extended family (and we are sure to do some America-related business), concerns over security have been dismissed after the President's schedule was leaked this week by a Kenyan airline. However, as China Daily reports, Susan Rice, the National Security Adviser said that Obama will not visit his family's ancestral village of Kogelo due to "time and logistical reasons."

Because of their credit issues, these bonds often trade more closely with equities than they do with base interest rates. Occasionally, however, junk bonds and stocks will diverge with one another. Such a divergence is occurring at the moment. It is often suggested that when the bond and stock markets diverge, the bonds typically prove to be correct, i.e., the stock market usually ends up going the way of the bonds. Is there evidence to back that up? According to our research there is, and with junk bond yields at s-x month highs while the S&P is within 1% of record highs, for stock bulls, that isn’t necessarily good news.

"Defendants used electronic chatrooms, instant messaging, and other electronic and telephonic methods to exchange confidential customer information, coordinate trading strategies. Traders at some of these primary dealers talked with counterparts at other banks via online chatrooms and swapped gossip."

• Gunman kills two, wounds seven in Louisiana theater before killing himself (Reuters)
• Health insurer Anthem to buy Cigna in $54.2 billion deal (Reuters)
• Murder, Poisoning, Raids: It’s Election Season in Russia (BBG)
• Lagarde Push for Greece Debt Relief Challenges Merkel (Bloomberg)
• Fund Boss’s Gamble on Health Law Pays Off Big (WSJ)
• Wall Street Cranks Up Its Outlook for Amazon After It Delivers Monster Earnings Report (BBG)
• China's Richest Man Marks Push Into Hollywood With Jake Gyllenhaal Movie (BBG)
• West Africa's alarming growth industry - meth (Reuters)

After yesterday's latest drop in stocks driven by "old economy" companies such as CAT, which sent the Dow Jones back to red for the year and the S&P fractionally unchanged, today has been a glaring example of the "new" vs "old" economy contrast, with futures propped up thanks to strong tech company earnings after the close, chief among which Amazon, which gained $40 billion in after hours trading and has now surpassed Walmart as the largest US retailer. As a result Brent crude is little changed near 2-wk low after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data fueled demand concerns, adding to bearish sentiment in an oversupplied mkt. WTI up ~26c, trimming losses after yday falling to lowest since March 31 to close in bear mkt. Both Brent and WTI are set for 4th consecutive week of declines; this is the longest losing streak for Brent since Jan., for WTI since March.