Archive - Jul 2015 - Story

If the Fed is concerned that a rate hike cycle might exacerbate the supposed drag on the economy exerted by the strengthening dollar and that tightening when the rest of the world is immersed in competitive devaluation could create FX headwinds for US exports, then why not nominate a currency strategist to the Fed board to weigh in on the subject? Well, as it turns out, that’s precisely what the Obama administration did on Monday.

Over the last 5 years, rent costs in the city of Oakland have doubled. At $2,807 per month it more expensive to live in Oakland now than it was in SanFrancisco in 2012, so one would expect the city to have 'cleaned up', and 'be safer'? However, as SFGate reports, the city laid off 80 officers today to help eliminate a $30.5 million budget deficit, prompting the department to announce that officers would no longer be dispatched to take reports for most nonviolent crimes. "With current levels of staffing, we are unable to respond to many lower-priority calls," said Officer Jeff Thomason, a police spokesman.

California's gasoline price premium to the rest of the nation is the highest on record, according to Bloomberg data. This, as OilPrice's Andy Tully notes, is in large part because an Exxon Mobil Corp. refinery in Torrance has been out of commission since an explosion there in February, and the state’s environmental regulations are hampering the company’s efforts to quickly get it back to full production. This situation is not expected to improve by year-end.

The Euro is up 1.3% - the biggest jump in 6 weeks - as the US Dollar is weakening against all the majors (except cable). The USD Index is down almost 1%, its biggest drop in 7 weeks...

"The size of the required ‘upfront’ (i.e. to be introduced in 2016) principal haircut to be €110bn (60% of annual Greek nominal GDP in 2014). Note that we do not see much difference in an alternative scenario based on a ‘tranched’ principal haircut framework (of around €15bn per year), also starting in 2016. However, a ‘backloaded’ (i.e. to be introduced in 2022) approach relying on a single haircut would be more expensive, amounting to €130bn (72% of annual Greek nominal GDP in 2014)."

This charmed circle includes Google, Amazon, Baidu, Facebook, Saleforce.com, Netflix, Pandora, Tesla, LinkedIn, ServiceNow, Splunk, Workday, Ylep, Priceline, QLIK Technologies and Yandex. Taken altogether, their market cap clocked in at $1.3 trillion on Friday. That compares to just $21 billion of LTM net income for the entire index combined. The talking heads, of course, would urge not to be troubled. After all, what’s a 61X trailing PE among today’s leading tech growth companies?

"Lenders in general are increasing pressure on oil companies either to raise more equity or do some sort of transaction to pay down their credit lines and free up extra cash."

"There’s another redetermination cycle in the fall, And I’m not going to say likely but it’s possible we’ll be selectively downgrading some clients."

Moments ago we got the latest BofA client flow update in which we were expecting to find that the "smart money", flush with cash, and taking advantage of the Greek "deal" would jump in on last week's biggest weekly market surge since October 2014 when Bullard hinted at QE4 and unleashed a buying surge. To our surprise we find that not only did "smart" money continue selling, but they were joined by the "smartest" money of all, hedge funds.  And who did they sell to? Why retail investors of course... and corporate buybacks but that should go without saying.

USDJPY rolls over after the Fed revised IP lower and BoJ comments on inflation outlook, Johnny 5 decided "time's up," and stocks tumble...

"We need to hang him on the courthouse square as soon as we get a hold of him."

– Former vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Saxby Chambliss, on Edward Snowden

Stocks, bond yields, and the Dollar suddenly started dropping right as The Fed unveiled its revisions for industrial production and capacity utlization. Already at weak levels, both were revised notably lower, slowing the market's rate-hike expectations and stalling any hope that the recovery is gathering pace. Judging by the chart below, the June payrolls report was right: snowfall in the summar was indeed much worse than most remember.

Earlier today one of Icahn's favorite energy names (you won't find him tweeting about this one much thought) Chesapeake Energy, the second-largest US natural gas producer, announced it too is now scrambling to conserve cash (in this case $240 million per year) by suspending its dividend payment.

With the mainstream media onslaught against precious metals climaxing this weekend as WSJ's Jason Zweig proclaimed gold "like a pet rock," describing owning gold as "an act of faith," we thought it worthwhile looking back at the last time 'everyone' was slamming gold and entirely enthused by the omnipotence of central bankers... May 4th, 1999 - "Who Needs Gold When We Have Greenspan?"

If pouring billions of dollars into outrageous "look at me" buildings isn't tempting the gods, what is it?