Archive - Jul 2015 - Story

In the end, finance—at any level—has to be about rules and numbers, or it becomes about nonsense. Break enough of your own rules, and your money turns to garbage, because in a world where money is debt and debt is garbage, money is garbage. But there is a proven method for solving this problem and moving on: it's called national bankruptcy. Greece is bankrupt; if its resolution brings on the bankruptcy of Spain, Italy and others, and if that in turn bankrupts the entire Eurozone, then that's exactly what must happen. But something else might happen instead.

Brace yourselves...

For corporate management teams it’s all about instant gratification these days and if you needed proof that US equity markets have become the preferred channel for transferring debt sale proceeds directly into the pockets of top management, Bloomberg has all the evidence you need.

Despite broad and deep price cuts introduced earlier in the year, GM's sales in China were roughly flat in June continuing the streak of weakness since March (when GM changed its reporting to retail sales from wholesale delivery). This is the weakest start to a year for China auto sales since 2012 and GM's share price is now back notably below its 2012 IPO price. Judging by the massive volume of cars 'parked' in GM's Shenyang Liaoning lots, it is clear that automakers learned nothing from the last "if we build it, they will come" channel-stuffing inventory surging dysphoria that, among other things, led to their last bankruptcy... if only Chinese buyers would take up the credit terms like Americans.

Nobody apparently learned much from the whole bubble-bust affair as banks and financial firms are at it again, this time in corporate debt. The artificial suppression of default, in no small part to perceptions of those bank reserves under QE (just like perceptions of balance sheet capacity pre-crisis), has turned junk debt into the vehicle of choice for yet another cycle of “reach for yield.” In the past two bubble cycles, we see how monetary policy creates the conditions for them but also in parallel for their disorderly closure. It isn’t money that the FOMC directs but rather unrealistic, to the extreme, expectations and extrapolations. Once those become encoded in financial equations, the illusion becomes real supply.

Chinese investor psychology has shifted. Period. The more the government intervenes to lift stock prices explicitly, the more local and professsional leveraged investors will use any strength to unwind their positions (profitably or unprofitably). The question is - when does this carnage stop?

"Greek banks closed for a week, cash withdrawals from ATM’s restricted to a limited amount per person per day is all too familiar to Zimbabweans. We know exactly how this feels: the fear, anger, despair and disbelief that goes with watching your life savings evaporating and knowing there’s nothing you can do to save it."

There is an argument to be made that this could indeed be a "new market" given the continued interventions by global Central Banks in a direct effort to support asset prices. However, despite the coordinated efforts of Central Banks globally to keep asset prices inflated to support consumer confidence, there is plenty of historic evidence that suggest such attempts to manipulate markets are only temporary in nature.

The President and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by phone this morning about Greece. The leaders agreed it is in everyone's interest to reach a durable agreement that will allow Greece to resume reforms, return to growth, and achieve debt sustainability within the Eurozone. The leaders noted that their economic teams are monitoring the situation in Greece and remain in close contact.

HSBC just can't seem to help itself. As The Sun reports, as part of a "team-building" exercise, six bankers filmed the fake ISIS-style beheading of an Asian colleague - while yelling 'Allahu Akbar'. However, given that these were not C-level executives, there has been some consequences - the six bankers have been fired with HSBC noting "this is an abhorrent video and HSBC would like to apologize for any offense."

It seems China better hurry up and a) enable HFT on Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses, and b) enable options trading directly...

Despite endless assurances that the Greek debt crisis is contained, the reality is that the ragin' contagion of debt crises will spread not just to other deeply indebted nations but to the mercantilist economies that depend on selling goods to borrowers. Strip out the borrowing, and you strip out most of the customers for German, Dutch and Chinese goods.

The US mint running out of physical silver, confirming surging demand, on the same day the price of spot silver plummets, implying dropping demand. just does not quite compute...

Because when banning selling doesn’t work, the logical next step is to ban talking about selling...