Archive - Jul 2015 - Story

In Spain, only Vladmir Putin is more disapproved of than Angela Merkel. Such is the level of polarization that Germany's chancellor has created in Europe that, as WSJ reports, even domestically she is being deriled for saddling Greeks with "soup kicthens upon soup kitchens." As Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, a leading Berlin think tank notes, "Germany has, at the end of the day, helped determine most of the European decisions of the last five years," and therefore, "what is happening now is a defeat for Germany, especially, far more than for any other country."

"We Greeks have voted 'No' to slavery -- but 'Yes' to our chains... What's simply whack-o is that, while voting "No" to austerity, many Greeks wish to remain shackled to the euro, the very cause of our miseries."

Everyone was expeting today's "hope" headlines, and as usual, they were not disappointed.

With all the equity excitement from China to Europe to the US, it was easy to forget that the US has some $24 billion in budget deficit and debt rollovers to find in the form of 3 Year paper. And moments ago the US Treasury priced the first of the week bond issue when it sold 3 Year notes at a 0.932% yield, the lowest since April, and stopping through the When Issued 0.936%. While the Bid to Cover came in at a lowish 3.156, the weakest since last August, the internals made up for it, as the Direct take down jumped from 9.7% to 13.9%, and Indirects ended up with 47.7% of the issue leaving 38.4%, or 3% below the TTM average of 41.3%.

Despite the ups and down of the last few weeks, 'relative' stability in US equities has confirmed talking heads' bias that 'Greece is contained'. However, Bloomberg's Smart Money flow indicator suggests that the big money (that trades at the open and close) is anything but believing and has in fact been selling since Greferedum...

A day of diplomatic blow-ups in Europe just had a more literal, if perhaps more tragic echo, in the US when minutes ago in a scene straight out of Breaking Bad took place in real life when an F-16 fighter jet is said to have crashed into a civillian Cessna airplane, above Highway 52, near Cooper River in Berkely County, 30 miles north of Charleston, South Carolina.

Among all the mindless blather served up by the talking heads of bubblevision is the recurrent claim that “its all priced-in”. That is, there is no danger of a serious market correction because anything which might imply trouble ahead—-such as weak domestic growth, stalling world trade or Grexit——is already embodied in stock market prices. Yep, those soaring averages are already fully risk-adjusted! Nothing to see here, it will be argued. Today’s plunge is just another opportunity for those who get it to “buy-the-dip”. And they might well be right in the very short-run. But this time the outbreak of volatility is different. This time the dip buyers will be carried out on their shields.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke to U.S. President Barack Obama by telephone on Tuesday shortly before an emergency euro zone summit and briefed him on Greece's request for a rescue loan, a Greek government official said. The official said Obama had voiced strong U.S. hopes for a successful outcome to the negotiations. The United States has said it wants an early solution to Greece's debt crisis that keeps Athens in the European currency area.

Does this look contained to you?

With near record shorts in Treasuries once again, yields are collapsing as both a flight to safety and short squeeze send 30Y back below 3.00% for the first time in a month...

"Bottom line: our early flow has been entirely one way: risk-off. Starting to get more much quiet now but have seen zero attempts to buy the dip or fade this move"

In one of the shorter Eurogroup meetings in recent history, the Greeks came bearing nothing and today's "final, final, final" "last chance for a deal" conference ended just after 2 hours in. The Greeks may come back tomorrow bearing a new proposal but at this point it is rather clear what the endgame is. In a few moments expect Diesel-BOOM to explain why nothing got done again, and why it's on the Greeks if the Eurozone dominoes start falling next.

The last time the S&P 500 dropped below its 200-day moving average, The Fed's Jim Bullard rapidly stepped in to save the world... who will save the world this time?

After hiking the haircuts on Greek banks' ELA collateral, the ECB decided it was time to apprise the market of its "risk management" procedures. The result: an epic display of central banker hypocrisy.

It appears that 'hope' for a deal (again) was entirely misplaced (again). Yesterday's 'containement' was all EURJPY-driven as BoJ and ECB held hands to maintain markets... it appears they have stopped for now...