Archive - Aug 30, 2015 - Story

For the moment, to paraphrase Alexander Solzhenitsyn, the “permanent lie [has become] the only safe form of existence”.

But the world cannot postpone, indefinitely, dealing decisively with the economic, resource management, social and political challenges we face.

"This feels like 2008 all over again," as NPR reports the latest Iowa Poll showed Sanders just 7 points behind Hillary Clinton, who leads 37 to 30 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers. Why 2008? As NPR notes, that's when a heavily favored Clinton stumbled and lost to Barack Obama, then a young senator whose middle name, Hussein, was the same as a dictator the U.S. had just overthrown and whose last name rhymed with America's Public Enemy No. 1. And while the socialist septuagenarian continues to surge, Hillary faces yet another 'issue', as Yahoo Tech reports, 1 million (or one third) of her 'apparent' Twitter followers are fake.

What better way to mute demands for a return to sound money and the gold standard, than by making them equivalent to jihadist terrorism? Why, there are none, which may explain the hilarious appearance of the "Islamic State's" latest 55-minutes pro gold standard YouTube clip, which is nothing but a crash course in Austrian economics.

During the last crisis period, starting in March 2007 and lasting through November 2008, foreign central banks withdrew gold for a total of 20 out of 21 consecutive months, repatriating a grand total of 409 tons of gold. The last period of peak redemption culminated with the failure of Lehman in September 2008, the near failure of AIG in October and November 2008, coupled with the Fed's bailout of the western financial system. If past is prologue, one should ask: what current or future event is driving the ongoing redemption of 246 tons of gold (and rising) from the NY Fed this time?

The week that passed has left many of the so-called “smart crowd” flummoxed, disheveled, dismayed, and disrobed from their expensive facades of “expert insightful analysis.” It seems all that “expert” as well as “insight” wasn’t all it was made out to be. In less than a week: historic records weren’t only broken – they were smashed to smithereens. And the one’s that were the most historic? They weren’t set for positive things.

"The first three months of 2015 only saw a marginal increase in SWF assets in the headwind of falling oil prices. TheCityUK expects that SWFs’ assets will increase by 4% in 2015 to $7.4 trillion, well below the 12% average annual growth seen over the previous five years. Flows into some funds could turn negative. Growth in SWFs’ assets is closely related to the price of oil, as around 60% of SWFs’ assets originate from commodity exports."

“I did not have financial relations with that dictator.”

VAR (invented at J.P. Morgan well before both the global financial crisis and their entertaining London Whale drubbing) is an expression of the largest possible loss, contained within a specified confidence interval.  We can for example explore the history of worst weekly losses in the S&P, for each month starting more than 5 years ago in January 2010 (and through May 2015).  A total of 65 months.  We can set a probability tolerance of just over 6%, and state that the probability of seeing a loss greater than this VAR should be less than or equal to ~6% (or 1 in 16 months).