Archive - Aug 31, 2015 - Story

The market has already delivered its verdict swiftly in the face of the global equity market correction– reducing substantially the probability of a rate hike in September, and pricing in a full rate hike only by March next year. We assign a higher probability than the market for a lift off in September but acknowledge that the risk has shifted towards later, a slower pace and a lower terminal rate. For now, we hold on to the put on EDU5 that we initiated two weeks ago. "Data dependency” over the next couple of weeks might really mean “equity market dependency”. If the equity market drops 10%, the Fed will most likely not hike, no matter what the payrolls data is.

China's Ministry of Public Security says the accused are very, very sorry for their actions, in which they "misled society and the public, generated and spread fearful sentiment, and even used the opportunity to maliciously concoct rumors to attack [Communist] Party and national leaders."

• Hilsenrath: Fed Appears to Hold Line on Rate Plan (WSJ)
• Europe, Asia stocks set for worst monthly drop in three years on China, Fed (Reuters)
• Beijing abandons large-scale share purchases (FT), if only for a few hours
• China’s Next Problem: Paying for Its Stock-Market Bailout (WSJ)
• Crises Put First Dents in Xi Jinping’s Power (WSJ)
• Man Group’s China Chief Said to Assist Police in Probe (BBG)

· The final US Nonfarm payrolls report before the September FOMC rate decision takes centre stage this week after developments in China last week dampened expectations for a Fed rate lift off

· The ECB rate decision and press conference is this week’s main event in Europe, with some analysts forecasting an extension to QE by the end of the year

Sometimes you have to work really hard for those "soft dollars."

Yesterday, the FT triumphantly proclaimed: "Beijing abandons large-scale share purchases", and that instead of manipulating stocks directly as China did last week on Thursday and Friday, China would instead focus on punishing sellers, shorters, and various other entities. We snickered, especially after the Shanghai Composite opened down 2% and dropped as low as 4% overnight. Just a few hours later we found out that our cynical skepticism was again spot on: the moment the afternoon trading session opened, the "National Team's" favorite plunge protection trade, the SSE 50 index of biggest companies, went super-bid and ramped from a low of 2071 to close 140 points higher, ending trading with a last minute government-facilitated surge, and pushing the Composite just 0.8% lower after trading down as much as -4.0%.