Archive - Aug 3, 2015 - Story

The cracks in the facade are starting to show... as we warned yesterday, it is different this time...

Unequivocally good for someone, somewhere surely... Following WTI's drop to a $45 handle, Brent just broke below $50 (to $49.80 lows) for the first time since January...

As opposition lawmakers accuse Tayyip Erdogan of blocking efforts to form a coalition government, Ankara says the PKK orchestrated a suicide attack that killed three Turkish soldiers. Meanwhile, Erdogan says Vladimir Putin is ready to "give up on" Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Both bubbles (rents and housing) are vulnerable to popping. The real test of valuation is: what's it worth in a recession, after all the easy money and the jobs that depended on easy money have vanished?

But, but, but the iWatch and Apple TV is coming soon!!

"Fleet deliveries in July were down 20 percent year over year, as the company continues to execute its plan to reduce sales to rental customers and grow commercial and government deliveries. Government sales were up 38 percent, with deliveries to state and local governments up 59 percent."

Update: JUDGE SENTENCES HAYES TO 14 YEARS IN JAIL FOR LIBOR CRIME 

Former UBS Group AG and Citigroup Inc. trader Tom Hayes, the first person to stand trial for manipulating Libor, was found guilty of eight counts of conspiracy to rig the benchmark rate.

A more than cursory look at the ascendent ISM New Orders data reveals something quite unpositive: the only reason they New Orders print came where it did, is due to seasonal adjustments.

A dramatic upward revision from 0.8% MoM to 1.8% MoM (after March's biggest jump since 1998), may be a small silver lining in the rear view mirror as construction spending growth tumbled to just 0.1% in May - the weakest since Nov 2014. It seems the climactic malinvestment boom in the last 3 months is faltering fast and is entirely unsustainable.

Here is the Clinton family's adjused gross income since 2007. The summary: $139.1 million in income since 2007, most of it thanks to speeches starting at $225,000 and going much higher. And that is your "everyday Americans."

"President Barack Obama has authorized using air power to defend a new U.S.-backed fighting force in Syria if it is attacked by Syrian government forces or other groups, raising the risk of the American military coming into direct conflict with the regime of President Bashar al-Assad," WSJ reports.

It appears ISM Manufacturing data has been 'leaked' early and is reportedly printing 52.7 in July, down from 53.5 prior and missing expectations. This is the weakest print since March as the Q2 bounce is now officially dead. Both imports (lowest since Jan 2013) and new export orders (lowest in 3 years) declined as employment tumbled. In fact every subcomponent fell aside from new orders, production, and supplier deliveries with order backlogs at their lowest since Nov 2012.

Amid the collapse in coal prices, not helped by the 'China situation' and President Obama's nudge, WSJ reports that the ailing US coal just got another black eye as Alpha Natural Resources is expected to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection early Monday to cut its more than $3 billion debt load. After four straight annual losses, Alpha - one of America's largest coal producers - has secured $692mm in DIP financing as it prepares its restructuring plan expected to sell some of the best mines and shutter others. It appears the Arch Coal's CEO's ominous words last week were prophetic - “Coal markets are as difficult as I’ve seen them during my 30 years in the industry."

Spending and Income data appears to have been the trigger sending WTI and Brent crude prices dramatically lower. WTI has now broken to a $45 handle, its lowest since mid-March..

The good news, personal income rose a better than expected 0.4% MoM (flat to the previous month's revised lower growth). The 'meh' news, personal spending rose just 0.2% - meeting expectations - but slowing its growth dramatically from the 0.7% revised May data. And the bad news, real personal spending was unchanged in June, its weakest growth (or lack of it) since February. This means the savings rate rose from 4.6% in May to 4.8% in June - its second lowest in 2015 (but increasing just as The Fed hopes for excape velocity consumption confirmed by their rate hikes in a circular logic fallacy).