Archive - Aug 2015 - Story

The carnage continues to roll around the world as Asia and Europe react to US weakness which reacted to China weakness and now US is retumbling on fresh China weakness as the global carry trade unwinds across every asset class...

Perhaps the most important price point in the entire equity market was broken today... The odds of the post-2009 bull market continuing unimpeded are now significantly reduced.

"SPOT GOLD: Runnin “Smack” Into Long Term Resistance: We turned supportive of gold several weeks ago rather publically [ZH: sic], but now gold in US dollar terms is running into what we fear shall be formidable resistance… with the margin clerks around the world looking to sell gold to raise liquidity as stocks come under very real pressure." - Dennis Gartman

Nestle has found itself more and more frequently in the glare of the California drought-shame spotlight than it would arguably care to be - though not frequently enough, apparently, for the megacorporation to have spontaneously sprouted a conscience.

What began in early June with a surprisingly strong showing at the ballot box for the pro-Kurdish HDP has now ended precisely where many knew it would: with new elections.

"YTD investor performance has been plagued by “non-stop pain trades” as liquidity expectations weaken and investment horizons shorten. For example, July/August saw the S&P 500 media sector lose $100bn of market cap in 15 trading days, as well as significant losses in Asian and Emerging Market currencies following the Chinese yuan devaluation."

Militants, allegedly acting on the orders of an Iranian commander, fired rockets into Israel on Thursday, prompting a swift response from the Israeli military which launched a series of airstrikes across the border in Syria killing at least four. 

• No End in Sight for Oil Glut (WSJ)
• Dozens of Clinton emails were classified from the start, U.S. rules suggest (Reuters)
• China August Manufacturing Activity Hits Lowest Level Since 2009 (WSJ)
• German Manufacturing Strengthens as Economy Shifts Up a Gear (BBG)
• Israel responds to rocket attack with protest and air strikes (FT)
• ASX carnage: 2015 fast becoming a year to forget  (Canberra Times)
• Hong Kong Stocks Enter Bear Market After Falling From April Peak (BBG)

"Lower commodity prices and falling farm incomes are continuing to pressure demand for agricultural machinery, with the declines most pronounced in higher-horsepower models. Conditions are more positive in the U.S. livestock sector, supporting some improvement in the sales of smaller sizes of equipment. Based on these factors, industry sales for agricultural equipment in the U.S. and Canada are forecast to be down about 25 percent for 2015."

Perhaps the biggest surprise about the overnight Chinese stock rout is which followed the lowest manufacturing PMI since March 2009, is that it happened despite repeat sellside pleas for a PBOC RRR cut as soon as this weekend: usually that alone would have been sufficient to push the market back into the green, and it almost worked when in the afternoon session stocks rebounded after dropping as much as 4.7% below the "hard" floor of 3500, but then a second bout of selling just before the close took Chinese stocks right back to the lows with the Shanghai Composite closing at 3,507, down 4.3% on the day, having wiped out the entire 18% rebound from July 8 when the PBOC first threatened both sellers and shorters with arrest.

"Short-term, markets seem intent on forcing either the Fed to pass in September, or the Chinese to launch a more comprehensive and credible policy package to boost growth expectations. Alternatively, a credit event in commodities (note CDS is widening sharply for resources companies – front page chart) may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic. Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking."

Chinese media are describing tonight's market action as "Judgment Day" for China, as SCMP's George Chen explains, the crusade of 'malicious short sellers' against the Communist central planners and their 'funds' is in full swing. The "manage-the-economy-by-technical-analysis" strategy appears to have failed as Shanghai Composite has broken notably below its 200-day moving average - which six times before has been defended aggressively. Chinese Stocks are back at 7-week lows, just off the crash lows in July.

It appears bad news in China is "bad news" for everyone. With Chinese authorities already in full liquidity spigot-mode, the fact that China PMI for August collapsed to its lowest since March 2009 strongly suggests that - unlike every talking-head's proclamation - a crashing stock market does (whether reflexively or not) impact the real economy. US equity futures legged significantly lower on the news - S&P 500 to 7-month lows, eyeing the stunning 2,000 level; and Japanese stocks also legged lower.

In the Western world insouciance rules governments as well as peoples, and most likely also everywhere else in the world. It remains to be seen whether Russia and China have any clearer grasp of the reality that confronts them.