Archive - Sep 10, 2015 - Story

Late last year, Paul Krugman took a field trip to Japan to observe Keynesian insanity prowling around in its natural habitat. While he was there, he gave Prime Minister Shinzo Abe some sage advice which can be roughly summarized as follows: "Abenomics is working so why would you screw it up by getting fiscally responsible all of the sudden?" Nine months later, Japan is still a deflationary deathtrap and Krugman is "really, really worried"...

Kerry reportedly assigned an “email czar” in an effort to ensure that the State Department promptly responds to an onslaught of record requests without directly undercutting Clinton and the Democratic Party’s presidential front-runner. Kerry could not have picked a better team player. Janice Jacobs is a big Clinton fan who contributed $2,700 to the Hillary for America presidential campaign fund, Federal Election Commission records obtained by JW show. Can we really expect her to be fair and objective as the new gatekeeper of Clinton’s records?

What the pundits attempt to do is have you focus on the forest from an inch away. While the endless optimism of the talking-heads, most recently that the selloff in developed equity markets has gone too far, each offering up various 'narrative' reasons to support their claim; simply put, they are full of tragic flaws. Allow us to color-code this for all those market "pros" and PhD "economists" who haven't been able to follow the premise over the past several months...

It appears the "go to" manipulation to rig stocks higher - the so-called VIXtermination algo - has lost its juice...

On April 5, 1933, FDR signed Executive order 6102 which made illegal "the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States" in the process criminalizing the possession of monetary gold by any individual or corporation.  Fast forward 82 years to a time when the barbarous relic continues to be seen as the safest store of value among India's vast population (roughly 20% of the world's total), not to mention the main source of financial headaches for local authorities, one of the biggest importers of gold due to its "traditional" values , that the Indian government may be preparing to pull a page right out of the FDR playbook.

Market participants, be they lenders or borrowers, know that “easy money” has an expiry date. If The FOMC raises rates, "we foresee negative effects on world GDP in the medium term, not only for emerging markets but also for industrialized economies." In other words, though emerging markets – through their dependence on capital inflows – will be at risk when America’s monetary policy eventually returns to “normal,” the same will be true for advanced economies.

Unequivocally apologetic...

Amid the turmoil of the markets, it appears that older Americans (those over 65 years old) are the most negatively affected as their "comfort" has collapsed to 11-month lows. Oddly, perhaps thanks to lower gas prices or simple Schdenfreude for not being as neck-deep invested in stocks as the older-generations, middle-aged Americans (from 35-44) have seen a resurgence in confidence (now at 4-month highs).

Don’t let anyone fool you: As we have detailed since 2013, sectarian strife in Syria has been engineered to provide cover for a war for access to oil and gas, and the power and money that come along with it.

Just 4 short months ago, Avon stock soared after a fake private equity offer from a fake entity appeared. With a 20% short base, the stock exploded higher. Today, with 17.4% of the stocks' float short, The Wall Street Journal sparks some panic-buying...

*AVON HALTED; DISCUSSES STAKE SALE WITH PE FIRMS, WSJ REPORTS

Avon has now been halted twice and is trading up 12% (before re-opening). It appears our observation that AVP has a Debt-to-Ebitda of a stunning 3.7x that has blown away hope/hype of the LBO copming to fruition... AVP is fading fast.

"The fence, in part being built by prisoners along the 175-km (109-mile) border, would be completed sooner than planned, by the beginning rather than the end of October. 'This 3.5-4-metre tall fence can be adequate to protect the country, especially if policemen are patrolling on the other side,"' Minister Viktor Orban's chief of staff Janos Lazar told a weekly news conference."

August's import prices dropped a stunning 11.4% YoY, the biggest drop since September 2009. This faster-than-expected deceleration suggests "another leg lower" according to TD's Millan Mulraine, as USD strength and renewed energy declines feed through the price channel and reverses a hope-filled mid-year drift higher. This is the 13th month of YoY drops (and 111th of last 12 MoM drops) flashing a recessionary warning. As Mulraine conculdes ominously, "coming at a time when the Fed is contemplating a lift-off in rates, the weak tone of this report should come as a key reminder that the dis-inflationary impulse is re- emerging."

The lack of leadership to tackle this clear and present danger to Europe's future is truly concerning. Both the migrants and the Europeans might be worse off as a result.