Archive - Sep 15, 2015 - Story

The data continues to suggest that the Fed is contemplating actions inconsistent with those they have taken in the past. It is possible the Fed is motivated to increase interest rates to support the illusion that their higher interest rate projections and rosy economic forecasts are finally coming to fruition. It is incumbent upon investors to separate illusion from reality. Investing in such a misunderstood and distorted economic environment is fraught with risk especially for those failing to grasp this reality. While current Fed monetary policy is clearly unsustainable, the Fed runs the risk of severely damaging asset markets with any deviations from such policy.

After 2 weeks of inventory builds (and production drops), API reports an unexpected 3.1 million barrel inventory draw (with Cushing drawing down 1.5mm bbl). Crude surged back above $45 on the news...

The world today sits upon a very precarious point. One thing that’s not a “guess” is the way nations or economies have dealt with economic turmoil. History is far too littered with varying forms of “war” as not only the response, but also as the direct consequence of failed economic policies. Either of their own making or brought about by another. It doesn’t matter whether self-inflicted or not. The end game is the same: Currency war, Trade war, Diplomatic war, right down to actual combative kinetic war.

According to 'PredictIt' - the new InTrade - Jeb Bush remains the bookies favorite to get the Republican presidential nomination. The Donald is ranked 3rd in the betting (after Rubio) where a 23c bet will win $1 if Trump gets the nod. Trump is not a total "loser" though as he is odds-on favorite to get the most speaking time in the forthcoming CNN debates. Surveys and Polls are fickle, so follow the money... Clinton is the clear "money" favorite for The White House...

Day after day investors are treated to 5-Star Morningstar managers, so-called "strategists", economissseds with entire religions on the line, and circus barkers who proclaim that: a) The US is decoupled from the rest of the world; and/or b) The US is the cleanest dirty shirt; an/or c) There are no indications that the US economy is near a recession. Here are four simple charts - from, just today's data - that destroy this glass half full and rose-colored ignorance of reality...

If anyone wants to beat Trump in his own game, they will have to show and prove to the voters of America, that the existing system not only still works, but is worth saving in its current broken form. This is the biggest challenge to everyone - on the right, on the left and in the middle - even if nobody wants to admit it.

Despite all the confidence-inspiring propaganda from any and every mainstream talking-head, CEOs are cautious about the U.S. economy’s near-term prospects and are trimming business plans for hiring and capital investment over the next six months. According to The Business Roundtable, the CEO Economic Outlook Index tumbled 7.2 pts, from 81.3 in Q2 to 74.1 in Q3 with the disparity between CEO's employment perspective and the BLS 'augmented reality' having never been higher.

Going into Thursday, everyone - and we do mean everyone - is scrambling to predict which asset classes are most susceptible to a Fed hike. Amid the rampant confusion, BofAML asked fund managers to weigh in. Here are the results.

Well that escalated quickly... WTI back to a $43 handle again as The White House comments that it does not support The House bill to lift a ban on crude exports. Reuters reports that The White House says The Commerce Department should make the policy decision.

The party is over for tight oil. Despite brash statements by U.S. producers and misleading analysis by Raymond James, low oil prices are killing tight oil companies. Reports this week from IEA and EIA paint a bleak picture for oil prices as the world production surplus continues. EIA said that U.S. production will fall by 1 million barrels per day over the next year and that, “expected crude oil production declines from May 2015 through mid-2016 are largely attributable to unattractive economic returns.” IEA made the point more strongly. “..the latest price rout could stop US growth in its tracks.”

Seven years ago today, Lehman Brothers failed. But it is what took place just over two weeks prior that is of interest for the scope of this article.