Archive - Sep 15, 2015 - Story

From the moment China closed, The Dow is now up over 300 points... helped by a series of the worst possible data imaginable - confirming the US economy is weak, and getting weaker - which is awesome news!!!

In a dramatic show of faux generosity, staple CNBC commentator and billionaires, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal who several years ago sued Forbes for "underestimating" his net worth at "only" $20 billion (Forbes won) decided to show the world just how noble (and rich) he is. According to Arabian Business, Alwaleed Philanthropies, chaired by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, has given out "10,000 housing units and 10,000 cars to Saudi citizens who are eligible as per the criteria set by the organisation."

It is quite likely - given current valuation levels, deterioration in earnings growth, and a slower economic environment - that forward returns will be substantially lower. In other words, the "risk-reward" ratio for being an aggressive investor at this point in the market/economic cycle suggests that the "house will likely win." It is Deja Vu all over again...

2 Year Treasury yields have jumped 4.5bps today, breaking to 77.4bps - the highest since April 2011 as it appears (despite the 30% odds of a rate hike priced into the ED curve) Fed jawboning is creating front-end selling (in the face of weak data). Notably this is the same level that 2Y rates traded at in Dec 2008 after the initial tumble post-Lehman.

Chelsea Clinton is shocked that her mother's poll numbers are falling because after all, Hillary "is always game for singing 'The Wheels on the Bus' to baby Charlotte"...

After years of militarizing the local police in America, California may just have chalked one up for liberty-seekers (though we are not holding our breath). A bill to stop the militarization of California police departments received final approval in the state legislature last Thursday. The bill, which specifically points out the dangers of police militarization, saying it would “declare that this is a matter of statewide concern,”  is now on its way to the desk of Governor Jerry Brown.

"If the U.S. and other hostile forces persistently seek their reckless hostile policy towards the DPRK and behave mischievously, the DPRK is fully ready to cope with them with nuclear weapons any time.”

They say that the first casualty of war is truth. And, on both sides of the fight over lifting the ban on exports of U.S. crude oil, the truth has already fallen into a coma. The ban was instituted in 1975 in order to make America less subject to swings in international oil supply after suffering the price shock associated with the Arab oil embargo in 1973. Last week a committee in the U.S. House of Representatives voted to end the ban after a Senate committee voted in July to do the same. A vote by the full House and Senate could be near.

The tone from investors in the latest Bank of America survey is clear: as Michael Harnett summarizes it, the one prevailing theme is "unambiguous pessimism."  Bottom line: either markets soar, or something bad is about to happen: to wit: "Unambiguous pessimism means risk assets riper for a rally (note investors don’t want a Fed hike this week). If no rally, then markets ominously hinting “recession” and/or “default” imminent." Good luck Janet.

Following June's 0.8% surge in business inventories (the most in 4 years) which surged inventrory-to-sales to 1.37x - the highest since 2009 - July's data confirms the recession looms large as inventory accumulation appears to have hit its limit, up only 0.1% MoM (inventory-to-sales hovers at 1.36x - historic recession levels). Remembering that this data is lagged by 2 months (in the face of disastrous Empire Fed inventory collapse, auto production collapse and retail sales weakness), it appears the "if we build it, they will come" economy just got slapped in the face with the reality that 'Field of Dreams' was a fiction, just like The US 'Recovery'. Time for The Fed to hike rates?

It seems increasingly likely the next Global Financial Meltdown will arise in the FX/currency markets. The core paradox - that central banks can't control both domestic and global FX markets with the same set of policies - cannot be resolved by printing $1 trillion, or even $5 trillion. Printing money to fix one problem leads to another set of problems that are only made worse by additional money-printing.

Industrial Production missed expectations notably, dropping 0.4% MoM (the 6th of the last 8 months) missing expectations of a 0.2% drop (and notably weaker than the +0.9% upward revised July print). Thjis is the biggest MoM drop since August 2012. The big driver of the decline - just as we warned of nightmares ahead - was auto assemblies which plunged to a 4-year low by the most since Jan 2009. The year-over-year rise in IP is just 0.9% - flashing yet another recession-looming indicator.

Let's hope Dr. Yellen has the right medication this Thursday to cure the paranoid investing world of its latest Fed-induced psychosis.