Archive - Sep 2015 - Story

"As interest rates go more negative, market participants will have increasing incentives to make payments quickly and to receive payments in forms that can be collected slowly. This is exactly the opposite of what happened when short-term interest rates skyrocketed in the late 1970s: people then wanted to delay making payments as long as possible and to collect payments as quickly as possible.... if interest rates go negative, we may see an epochal outburst of socially unproductive—even if individually beneficial—financial innovation."

The consequences of all this are grim, but the timing is hard to predict. Perhaps the government can somehow borrow amounts that no one previously thought possible. But its creditors will look for repayment. Either the creditors are going to walk away unhappy (in the case of default), or the holders of all dollars are going to be stuck with worthless paper (in the case of hyperinflation), or the taxpayers’ pockets will be looted (the longer things muddle along), or most likely a combination of all three will happen. This will not be a happy story for all but a few of us.

On Thursday, the Fed made it clear that its reaction function has changed. "Data dependency" is gone (or at least relegated to the backburner in times of global turmoil), and international and financial market developments are now officially guiding the FOMC's (tentative) hand. This epochal shift has left market participants asking one very simple question: "Ok, now what?" 

Citing "continuing weakness in the medium-term growth outlook," Moody's has downgraded France:

*FRANCE CUT TO Aa2 FROM Aa1 BY MOODY'S, OUTLOOK TO STABLE

Apearing to blame The EU's "institutional and political constraints," Moody's expects French growth to be at most 1.5% and does not expect the debt burden to be materially reduced this decade.

The current surge in deflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize.

The reality is that while most folks who are reading this may find it difficult to empathize, the vast majority of Americans are scratching for any extra $0.75 an hour they can find.  At the same time CEO’s and highly paid bureaucrats continue to tout policies that have enriched themselves beyond the wildest dreams and comprehension of the average American.  Yet they promote these policies as being in the best interest of the working class.

Normally when the world needs an equity market boost, a broken market suffices to slam VIX and save the world. This time not so much.. and the carnage that this will cause into quad witch is frightening...

"In the west, it is common knowledge to walk out of a room wearing the same pair of shoes that you wore while entering the room. Nay, it is common sense. However here in Sh?m, our Syrian brothers have a very peculiar philosophy whereby they believe that everyone can share each other’s footwear, irrespective of foot size."

The first is that by keeping rates lower for even longer, the EM imbalances the Fed is worrying about will grow even larger, making it harder to exit stimulus; The second is a question on the value of forward guidance, after the Fed has repeatedly called for a hike and then backed out; The third is that the Fed may have limited, or no ammunition to react to the next potential shock, and that financial booms and busts may grow even larger over time.

Europeans are caught between being compelled to help - on what is truly a humanitarian catastrophe - and dealing with the uncertain consequences of bringing in such a large number of people. Part of that anxiety relates to the fact that the majority of those migrants adhere to Islam, where its relationship with Europe has been uneasy for many centuries. However, framing the debate in religious terms is too simplistic and overlooks some important facts. Whatever your view is, one thing is clear: Europe will never be the same again.

Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem says Syria may officially request the support of Russian combat troops in the fight to take back the country, a move that would pave the way for the Kremlin to overtly declare that Russia has joined the war in support of Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Putin on Monday to discuss concerns that Russia's involvement could end up strengthening the military capabilities of Hezbollah. Lurking in the background: the man one CIA officer once called "the most powerful operative in the Middle East today"...

In 1927, the Fed lowered US rates to try to help Europe which was then in the middle of an economic debt crisis the same as today. It is very curious how history repeats and we have just witnessed the Fed yield to international pressure once again. In doing so, they are condemning US pension funds as well as the elderly to financial doom setting in motion the next financial crisis.

Growth hope, production cuts, and geopolitical premia were so Wednesday...