Archive - Jan 12, 2016 - Story

"Overall, the county economies recovered on all four indicators by 2015 still represent only 7 percent of all county economies. In contrast, almost 16 percent of county economies had not recovered on any indicator by 2015."

With the seasonally drawdown-prone December completed, we begin seasonally build-prone January with expectations for a 2mm barrel build. However, according to API, both total and Cushing inventory levels tumbled (-3.9mm and 300k respectively). Great news - so why is crude tumbling? Simple - massive builds in end-products again with Gasoline up a massive 7mm barrels and Distillates up 3.6mm barrels. Having ramped off sub-$30 levels aftwr NYMEX closed, and lifted by the Iran-US news, WTI is sliding back rapidly.

...the Swiss canton of Zug is asking its citizens to delay paying their taxes for as long as possible, because the cantonal government doesn’t want to take in a pile of cash, only to end up paying the bank interest on all the tax revenue.

When it comes to life on planet earth in 2016, it increasingly feels as if we are all livestock constantly being monitored, prodded and surveyed by the oligarchy and its minions. The latest example revolves around a software program for police called Beware, developed by Intrado, which consists of a secret algorithm that determines an individual’s threat levels based on a multitude of unknown factors.

Welcome to the "do as I say, not as I do" democracy...

Another day, another plunge in The Baltic Dry Index, which just dropped a further 3.1% to 402 today - a new record low. While the index is driving headlines, under the surface, reality in the shipping (and shipbuilding) industry is a disaster. Total orders at Chinese shipyards tumbled 59% in the first 11 months of 2015, and as Bloomberg reports, with bulk ships accounting for 41.6% of Chinese shipyards’ $26.6 billion orderbook as of December, there is notably more pain to come, as one analyst warns "Chinese shipbuilders won’t be able to revive even if you try breathing some life into them."

As BofA admits, "we are increasingly concerned with this trend, as on an unadjusted basis non-commodity earnings growth has been negative 2 of the last 4 quarters, representing the worst 4 quarter average earnings growth in a non-recessionary period since late 2000."

Following Noble Group's downgrade to junk and "Enron moment," we thought it worth considering who is next to be junked?

While mace may be effective as a kind of groper-be-gone defense tactic, it's not much help against a Kalashnikov...

Last fall, a 7-inch injection well pipe ruptured 500 feet below the surface of Aliso Conayon in Los Angeles, after ferrying natural gas for six decades. The resulting methane leak is now being called one of the largest environmental disasters since the BP oil spill, has pushed thousands of people out of their homes, and has quickly become the single biggest contributor to climate change-causing greenhouse gas emissions in California. But it's not the first time this well sprang a leak - and Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas), which owns and operates the well, knew it.

In yet another hit for the energy complex, EIA just cut their global oil demand forecast to 95.19 million barrels a day this year (down from 95.22 million in December’s outlook). The energy agency also increased its forecast for global production to 95.93 million barrels a day (up from 95.79 million last month). This pressured WTI Crude back off a brief bounce and pushed it to a 20-handle at $29.97 for the first time since December 2003.

“I believe that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are the two greatest dangers to world peace. It is Saudi Arabia, through the Wahhabist doctrine, that is spreading terrorism across the globe. It’s not Iran, it’s not Syria or any other country.”

Geologist Arthur Berman explains why today's low oil prices are not here to stay, something investors and consumers alike should be very aware of. The crazy-low prices we're currently experiencing are due to an oversupply created by geopolitics and (historic) easy credit, not by sustainable economics. And when the worm turns, we are more likely than not to experience a sudden supply shortfall, jolting prices viciously higher. This will be a situation not soon resolved, as the lag time for new production to come on-line will be much longer than the world wants

A few market participants have noticed that the US High Yield Energy sector's credit risk collapsed 170bps this morning according to Bloomberg's data. This is the biggest plunge (rally) in the index of "incredibly risky stuff" on record and in the face of new cycle lows in crude, borrowing bases contracting, and rig counts crashing, this seemed odd... well here is why the index collapsed (spoiler alert - do not get excited).