Archive - Jan 15, 2016 - Story

"Stay out of the bathroom."

America's favorite "fast casual" darling is set to hold a kind of ad hoc “try not to poison anyone” meeting on February 8, when all stores will close “for a few hours” so that management can “discuss some of the changes [its] making to enhance food safety, to talk about the restaurant’s role in all of that and to answer questions from employees.”

There’s more than a whiff of 2008 in the air. The sources of systemic financial sector risk are different this time (they always are), but China and the global industrial/commodity complex are even larger tectonic plates than the US housing market, and their shifts are no less destructive. There’s also more than a whiff of 1938 in the air, as we have a Fed that is apparently hell-bent on raising rates even as a Category 5 deflationary hurricane heads our way, even as the yield curve continues to flatten.

At the start of September last year, as stocks began to ramp aggressively off the Black Monday crash lows, we unveiled a rather discomforting "decoupling" that suggested strongly "don't believe the hype." Four months later, and able to remain strongly convicted of the trade, the inverse VIX ETF (XIV) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have recoupled back at the lows from August 24th. We await the recoupling of equity exuberance to credit curmudgeon-ness...

Earlier today, Art Cashin summarized most (very desperate) traders' thoughts when he said that as a result of today's market crash, "the Fed will try anything" to prop up the wealth effect it had so carefully engineered with seven years of central planning in the aftermath of the financial crisis.  Yet one person who is far less sanguine abou the latest in a long series of central bank bailouts of the stock market is Macro-Allocation's Paul Brodsky, who believes that instead of the Fed Put, the time of the Fed Call has come.

Slumping crude prices are weighing heavily on Norway's economy as the government looks to its $830 billion sovereign wealth fund to plug budget holes and pay for fiscal stimulus. Officials hope a weaker krone can serve as a shock absorber but with Mario Draghi stuck in easing mode, that may prove to be an increasingly dubious proposition.

"Japan’s deflation didn’t begin until the mid-1990s, a half-decade after the collapse of Japanese real estate and equity prices. Furthermore, during the early years of deflation, Japanese long-run inflation expectations remained well anchored, averaging about 1½ percent as measured by consensus forecasts. So, unfortunately, a Japan-style deflation remains a relevant worst-case scenario for us going forward."

While gas rigs fell 13 last week, oil rigs dropped just 1 to 515. Crude's initial reaction was to extend losses...

"The Fed will try anything," warns Art Cashin, calmly explaining that markets "are in 'deep concern' mode," currently and if the S&P hits 1857, "there might be another whole new round of selling." The Fed's solution, Cashin stoically explains to a dumbstruck CNBC anchor, that "it doesn't matter that it hasn't worked in the past," The Fed will unleash moar QE to save the world.

Who said this market was all driven by The Fed?

There are now more than 100 FBI agents investigating Hillary Clinton. Her denial that she is at the core of their work is political claptrap with no connection to reality. It is inconceivable that the FBI would send such vast resources in the present dangerous era on a wild-goose chase. It is the consensus of many of us who monitor government behavior that the FBI will recommend indictment. If the FBI recommends indictment and the attorney general declines to do so, expect Saturday Night Massacre-like leaks of draft indictments, whistleblower revelations and litigation, and FBI resignations.

Some folks are selling... a lot.

"Inconceivable" ... but there is more to come.

The dishonesty here is that Cruz has pretended to stand against the bankers. But Cruz is bought and paid for and would be in the pocket of the New York Banks no different than Hillary, Bush, or the rest of them who take money from this crowd. You do not forget to report a loan from Goldman Sachs when your wife is a managing director. Come on. How stupid do we have to be to entertain this excuse?